2010 Season

<body topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 marginheight=0 marginwidth=0> <table cellpadding=0 cellspacing=0 border=0><tr> <td valign="top" colspan=2 height=90 BGCOLOR="#006699" TEXT="#080000" bgproperties="fixed" background="002285a1erlcgo.gif"> <div> <FONT SIZE="5" COLOR="#FFCC66" FACE="Arial" ><B>www.chapmansfriend.com</B></FONT><B>     |     </B><A HREF="default.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="www.chapmansfriend.com"><U><B>home</B></U></A></div> <div>                                                   </div> <div> </div> </td> </tr><tr> <td valign="top" width=210 BGCOLOR="#FFCC66" TEXT="#080000" background="001d2c00dkelyh.gif"> <div> <A HREF="id21.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Marky The Greek. "><U>Marky The Greek. </U></A></div> </td> <td valign="top" height=390 BGCOLOR="#FFFFFF" TEXT="#080000"> <div> <I>2010 Season</I></div> <div> <B>2010 Season</B><FONT SIZE="4" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Miriam" ><B>:</B></FONT></div> <bR> <div> <B>SUPER BOWL:</B></div> <bR> <div> <I><B>February 6:</B></I></div> <bR> <div> Went 1-1 for the conference championships, so I'm a very good <B>52-40-3 </B>for the season, going into the Super Bowl. Yes-- Super Bowl. I'm taking a year off from my quixotic attempt to call the Super Bowl the "NFL Chapmionship Game", which is all it is, and to equalize it with anything similar played before 1966. Maybe I should just go the other way-- retroactively call pre-1966 games "Super Bowls". Hey, you think any Super Bowls will be as big a blowout as the 73-0 Super Bowl of 1940? Heh.</div> <bR> <div> PIT at GB (-3). I'm going to take the Packers to win, which means that I should give the three points, since when Super Bowl favorites win, they nearly always cover. So, <B>GB - 3</B>.</div> <bR> <div> I'm also going to take the <B>Over of 45 points</B>, it seems this could end up being a shootout.</div> <bR> <div> No prop bets, like how long the National Anthem will take to sing...</div> <bR> <div> Whatever happens, a winning record assured for the season!</div> <bR> <bR> <div> <B>CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS:</B></div> <bR> <div> <I><B>January 23:</B></I></div> <bR> <div> After enjoying a stellar playoff record so far, I then lost both games last Sunday.</div> <bR> <div> "regression to the mean... regression to the mean... it's only regression to the mean..."</div> <bR> <div> 2-2 for the weekend, <B>51-39-3 </B>for the season...</div> <bR> <div> GB (-3.5) at CHI... No matter how hot the Packers have been lately, a home team getting points in the playoffs is irresistable. <B>CHI + 3.5.</B></div> <bR> <div> NYJ at PIT (-3.5)... <B>PIT - 3.5</B>.</div> <bR> <div> <B>DIVISIONAL ROUND:</B></div> <bR> <div> <I><B>January 16:</B></I></div> <bR> <div> OK, this is getting weird. For the last 2 weeks of the regular season and the playoffs so far I am... 13-3 against the spread? Huh?</div> <bR> <div> Can I keep things going on Sunday?</div> <bR> <div> SEA at CHI (-10). I said it last week, it's still valid today-- 10 points is too big a line here. As with last week, I expect the Seahawks to lose, but to cover. And if it works out like last week, then a 7-9 regular season team will be hosting the conference championship game... <B>SEA + 10</B>.</div> <bR> <div> NYJ at NE (-9). The Jets... the rare team to actually make the Patriots the People's Choice. Plus, they are playing better than any team for years, according to Aaron Schatz. <B>NE - 9</B>. </div> <bR> <div> <I><B>January 15:</B></I></div> <bR> <div> Hey, another good weekend-- 3-1 overall. At <B>49-37-3</B>, I figure that I can pick all the remaining games through the NFL Championship game (known to some as the Super Bowl), lose them all, and still come out ahead...</div> <bR> <div> BAL at PIT (-3)... <B>PIT -3</B>.</div> <bR> <div> GB at ATL (-3)... I think the Falcons will win, but of all this weekend's games it's the one that I am least confident about. So, <B>GB + 3</B>.</div> <bR> <bR> <div> <B>WILD CARD ROUND:</B></div> <bR> <div> <I><B>January 9:</B></I></div> <bR> <div> So far, so good. Well, not so good for the Saints, but good for my picks. 2-0 so far, and I can now lose 7 picks in a row and still come out ahead...</div> <bR> <div> BAL (-3) at KC... <B>KC + 3</B>.</div> <bR> <div> GB at PHI (-3)... <B>GB + 3</B>.</div> <bR> <div> <I><B>January 8:</B></I></div> <bR> <div> Another good 4-1 week to finish up the regular season... <B>46-36-3 </B>for the season.</div> <bR> <div> Despite what I wrote at the top of this section, I haven't always "consistently" come out ahead in picking regular season games. My regular season records from the past...</div> <bR> <div> 2009- 41-42-2</div> <div> 2008- 44-40-1</div> <div> 2007- 39-44-2</div> <div> 2006- 46-38-1</div> <div> 2005- 39-46</div> <div> 2004- 44-41</div> <div> 2003- 31-46-8</div> <div> 2002- 40-44-1</div> <bR> <div> With one exception, in 2006, I've mostly been below the gambling Mendoza Line of 52.4%. I can't really explain why 2003 was so bad. Well, lots of people had a bad 2003, like Bartman, and the Iraq War planners. Anyway, what I've usually had to try and make up for my regular season shortfall in the playoffs, with multiple wagers and prop bets.</div> <bR> <div> This year, I'm comfortably in the winning column, giving me the luxury to lose 5 straight picks and still finish above the gambling Mendoza Line. And maybe I get on a hot streak and even do better. So let's see how the playoffs go...</div> <bR> <div> NO (-11) at SEA. The last month or so, I've been cheering on the Saints but betting against them, and it's mainly worked out so far. Still hoping they beat the Seahawks, but <B>SEA + 11</B>.</div> <bR> <div> NYJ at IND (-3). The Jets, by a foot. <B>NYJ + 3</B>.</div> <bR> <bR> <bR> <div> <B>WEEK 17:</B></div> <bR> <div> <I><B>January 2:</B></I></div> <bR> <div> 4-1 a just the right time... <B>42-35-3 </B>for the season.</div> <bR> <div> MIN at DET (-3)... <B>MIN + 3</B>.</div> <bR> <div> TB at NO (-7.5)... <B>TB + 7.5</B>.</div> <bR> <div> BUF at NYJ (-1)... <B>NYJ - 1</B>.</div> <bR> <div> CHI at GB (-10)... <B>CHI + 10</B>. The Pack will probably win, but 10 points?</div> <bR> <div> NYG (-4) at WAS... <B>WAS + 4</B>.</div> <bR> <div> <B>WEEK 16:</B></div> <bR> <div> <I><B>December 26:</B></I></div> <bR> <div> A 1-4 week, a bad time for a slump... <B>38-34-3 </B>for the season.</div> <bR> <div> NYJ at CHI (-1)... <B>CHI - 1</B>.</div> <bR> <div> IND (-3) at OAK... <B>OAK + 3</B>.</div> <bR> <div> NYG at GB (-3)... <B>GB - 3</B>.</div> <bR> <div> MIN at PHI (-14.5)... <B>MIN + 14.5</B>.</div> <bR> <div> NO at ATL (-2.5)... <B>NO + 2.5</B>.</div> <bR> <div> <B>WEEK 15:</B></div> <bR> <div> <I><B>December 19:</B></I></div> <bR> <div> A 2-3 week, makes it <B>37-30-3 </B>for the season.</div> <bR> <div> CLE at CIN (-1.5)... <B>CLE + 1.5</B>.</div> <bR> <div> KC (-1) at STL... <B>STL + 1</B>.</div> <bR> <div> HOU at TEN (-1.5)... <B>HOU + 1.5</B>.</div> <bR> <div> AZ at CAR (-2.5)... <B>AZ + 2.5</B>.</div> <bR> <div> NO at BAL (-1)... <B>BAL - 1</B>.</div> <bR> <div> <B>WEEK 14:</B></div> <bR> <div> <I><B>December 12:</B></I></div> <bR> <div> Not 5-0 last week, but 4-1, so <B>35-27-3 </B>for the season.</div> <bR> <div> CLE at BUF (-1)... <B> CLE + 1</B>.</div> <bR> <div> TB (-2) at WAS... <B>TB - 2</B>.</div> <bR> <div> STL at NO (-9)... <B>STL + 9</B>.</div> <bR> <div> NE (-3) at CHI... <B>NE - 3</B>.</div> <bR> <div> BAL (-3) at HOU... <B>HOU + 3.</B></div> <bR> <div> <B>WEEK 13:</B></div> <bR> <div> <I><B>December 5:</B></I></div> <bR> <div> How I did last week depended upon which day I picked. Was 0-2 on Thanksgiving, 2-0 on Sunday, and 0-1 on Monday. Today I pick all 5 games on Sunday... 5-0 or 0-5 coming up! <B>31-26-3 </B>for the season.</div> <bR> <div> JAX at TEN (-3)... <B>JAX + 3</B>.</div> <bR> <div> CHI (-3.5) at DET... <B>CHI - 3.5</B>.</div> <bR> <div> DEN at KC (-9)... <B>DEN + 9</B>.</div> <bR> <div> OAK at SD (-13)... <B>OAK + 13</B>.</div> <bR> <div> ATL (-3) at TB... <B>TB + 3</B>.</div> <bR> <div> <B>WEEK 12:</B></div> <bR> <div> <I><B>November 28:</B></I></div> <bR> <div> Dare I say that the Thanksgiving games were turkeys for me? That makes me <B>29-25-3 </B>for the season...</div> <bR> <div> MIN at WAS (-1)... <B>MIN + 1</B>.</div> <bR> <div> STL at DEN (-4)... <B>STL + 4</B>.</div> <bR> <div> SF (-1) at AZ... <B>AZ + 1</B>.</div> <bR> <div> <I><B>November 25:</B></I></div> <bR> <div> Eh, not a good Sunday, so I ended up <B>2-3 </B>for the week, <B>29-23-3 </B>for the season...</div> <bR> <div> NO (-3.5) at DAL... <B>NO - 3.5</B>.</div> <bR> <div> CIN at NYJ (-9)... <B>CIN + 9</B>.</div> <bR> <div> <B>WEEK 11:</B></div> <bR> <div> <I><B>November 21:</B></I></div> <bR> <div> Another Thursday night win already in the bag... current season record <B>28-20-3</B>.</div> <bR> <div> GB (-3) at MIN... <B>MIN + 3</B>.</div> <bR> <div> WAS at TEN (-7)... <B>WAS + 7</B>.</div> <bR> <div> ATL (-3) at STL... <B>STL + 3</B>.</div> <bR> <div> DEN at SD (-10)... <B>DEN + 10</B>.</div> <bR> <div> <I><B>November 18:</B></I></div> <bR> <div> Another Thursday night game... Last week? <B>4-1 </B>for the week, <B>27-20-3 </B>for the season...</div> <bR> <div> CHI at MIA (-1.5)... <B>CHI + 1.5</B>.</div> <bR> <bR> <div> <B>WEEK 10:</B></div> <bR> <div> <I><B>November 14:</B></I></div> <bR> <div> Always good to get a win on those Thursday night games... current season record <B>24-19-3</B>.</div> <bR> <div> MIN (-1.5) at CHI... <B>CHI + 1.5</B>.</div> <bR> <div> TEN (-2) at MIA... <B>MIA + 2</B>.</div> <bR> <div> STL at SF (-6)... <B>STL + 6</B>.</div> <bR> <div> PHI (-3) at WAS... <B>WAS + 3</B>.</div> <bR> <div> <I><B>November 11:</B></I></div> <bR> <div> Getting an early start to the week with the beginning of the Thursday night games. Last week? <B>4-1 </B>for the week, <B>23-19-3 </B>for the season...</div> <bR> <div> BAL at ATL (-1)... <B>ATL - 1</B>.</div> <bR> <div> <B>WEEK 9:</B></div> <bR> <div> <I><B>November 7:</B></I></div> <bR> <div> Sooooo... what kind of a week did everybody else have? Heh. </had surgery'd></div> <bR> <div> Last week? <B>2-3 </B>for the week, <B>19-18-3 </B>for the season... In getting back to the picks this week I discovered that I accidentally deleted the picks I made for week 7, so all I know is that I went 4-1. A mess for bookkeeping but otherwise, let's move on...</div> <bR> <div> This week for the new, prostate-free Marky...</div> <bR> <div> SD (-3) at HOU... <B>HOU + 3</B>.</div> <bR> <div> AZ at MIN (-8)... <B>AZ + 8</B>.</div> <bR> <div> IND at PHI (-3)... <B>IND + 3</B>.</div> <bR> <div> KC at OAK (-2.5)... <B>OAK - 2.5</B>.</div> <bR> <div> PIT (-4.5) at CIN... <B>PIT - 4.5</B>.</div> <bR> <div> <B>WEEK 8:</B></div> <bR> <div> <I><B>October 31:</B></I></div> <bR> <div> Last week? <B>4-1 </B>for the week, <B>17-15-3 </B>for the season...</div> <bR> <div> JAX at DAL (-6.5)... <B>JAX + 6.5</B>.</div> <bR> <div> SF (-1) vs. DEN... <B>SF -1</B>.</div> <bR> <div> MIA at CIN (-1.5)... <B>CIN - 1.5</B>.</div> <bR> <div> WAS at DET (-2.5)... <B>WAS + 2.5</B>.</div> <bR> <div> PIT at NO (Pick 'em)... <B>PIT</B></div> <bR> <div> <B>WEEK 7:</B></div> <bR> <div> <I><B>October 24:</B></I></div> <bR> <div> Last week? <B>3-2 </B>for the week, <B>13-14-3 </B>for the season...</div> <bR> <bR> <bR> <bR> <div> <B>WEEK 6:</B></div> <bR> <div> <I><B>October 17:</B></I></div> <bR> <div> Last week? <B>4-1 </B>for the week, <B>10-12-3 </B>for the season...</div> <bR> <div> DET at NYG (-10)... <B>DET + 10</B>.</div> <bR> <div> ATL (-3) at PHI... <B>PHI + 3</B>.</div> <bR> <div> SD (-8.5) at STL... <B>STL + 8.5</B>.</div> <bR> <div> OAK at SF (-6.5)... <B>OAK + 6.5</B>.</div> <bR> <div> DAL at MIN (-1.5)... <B>MIN - 1.5</B>.</div> <bR> <div> <B>WEEK 5:</B></div> <bR> <div> <I><B>October 10:</B></I></div> <bR> <div> Last week? <B>2-3 </B>for the week, <B>6-11-3 </B>for the season...</div> <bR> <div> JAX (-1) at BUF... <B>JAX -1</B>.</div> <bR> <div> STL (-3) at DET... <B>DET + 1</B>.</div> <bR> <div> CHI (-3.5) at CAR... <B>CAR + 3.5</B>.</div> <bR> <div> NO (-7) at AZ... <B>AZ + 7</B>.</div> <bR> <div> MIN at NYJ (-4)... <B>NYJ - 4</B>.</div> <bR> <div> <B>WEEK 4:</B></div> <bR> <div> <I><B>October 3:</B></I></div> <bR> <div> Last week? Bad. The Cheifs won, every other pick was a loser. <B>1-4 </B>for the week, <B>4-8-3 </B>for the season...</div> <bR> <div> BAL at PIT (-1)... <B>PIT -1</B>.</div> <bR> <div> CAR at NO (-14)... <B>CAR + 14</B>.</div> <bR> <div> SEA (-1) at STL... <B>STL + 1</B>.</div> <bR> <div> HOU (-3.5) at OAK... <B>OAK + 3.5</B>.</div> <bR> <div> NE at MIA (-1)... <B>MIA - 1</B>.</div> <bR> <div> <B>WEEK 3:</B></div> <bR> <div> <I><B>September 26:</B></I></div> <div> You know it wasn't a good week when the Bears were your only winner, and that happened because the Cowboys are deteriorating faster than expected. <B>1-3-1 </B>for the week, <B>3-4-3</B> for the season. Isn't the 3-4-3 a soccer alignment?</div> <bR> <div> In a hurry this week, so just the picks...</div> <bR> <div> CIN (-3) at CAR. Pick? <B>CAR + 3</B>.</div> <bR> <div> SF (-3) at KC. Pick? <B>KC + 3</B>.</div> <bR> <div> PIT (-3) at TB. Pick? <B>TB + 3</B>.</div> <bR> <div> PHI (-3) at JAX. Pick? <B>JAX + 3</B>.</div> <bR> <div> NYJ at MIA (-2). Pick? <B>MIA - 2</B>.</div> <bR> <div> <B>WEEK 2:</B></div> <bR> <div> <I><B>September 19:</B></I></div> <div> All in all, not a bad first week. Two pushes, which is unusual, but that means the only losing pick was the Colts, and at least there Manning had a big game for my fantasy league stats. <B>2-1-2 </B>for the week, and the season.</div> <bR> <div> BUF at GB (-13). It's certainly not the Pack being favored that I question, it's the line. Thirteen points seems like an awful lot. Until the Packers demonstrate that they're that good, or the Bills prove they're this season's go-to sad sack team, I'll err on the side of caution. <B>BUF + 13</B>.</div> <bR> <div> BAL (-2.5) at CIN. I could be reading too much into the Ravens' shutdown of the Jets last week, but if that was for real there's no way the Mighty Bengals of Cincinnati can compete. (And that fulfills the traditional yearly <I>Sports Night </I>reference-- from the pilot episode, season one!) <B>BAL - 2.5</B>.</div> <bR> <div> CHI at DAL (-7.5). Again, the Cowboys should win because the Bears appear to be headed for a crappy season, but as evidenced by the first week, the 'Boys are no great shakes either. No runaway here. <B>CHI + 7.5</B><FONT SIZE="4" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Miriam" >.</FONT></div> <bR> <div> KC at CLE (-2). With all due respect to both teams and both fanbases, this has to be the Most Blah Matchup I've seen for a while. Even the announcing team-- Don Criqui and Steve Beuerlein-- is Pure Blah. If this game was a musical act it would be Hootie and the Blowfish, fifteen-year old pop culture references be damned. <B>CLE -2</B>.</div> <bR> <div> HOU (-3) at WAS. Watching Shanahan trying to turn Washington around is like watching <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#0000BF" FACE="Miriam" ><A HREF="http://snltranscripts.jt.org/78/78mfred2.phtml" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://snltranscripts.jt.org/78/78mfred2"><U>Freddie Silverman trying to turn NBC around back in the day</U></A></FONT>-- you knew it was probably a lost cause, but it would give you some laughs along the way. <B>WAS + 3</B>.</div> <bR> <div> <B>WEEK 1:</B></div> <bR> <div> <I><B>September 9:</B></I></div> <bR> <div> Time for another NFL season, but more importantly, another betting season. Last season I can only wish I had been making real bets instead of fake ones...</div> <bR> <div> Final count after last season's Super Bowl? <B>64-48-2</B>. That comes from picking the Saints + 5 in the game (they won 31-17, pulling away at the end), and taking Drew Brees as MVP at 3-1 odds. Score!</div> <bR> <div> Since the Saints are as close to "my" team as there is right now in the NFL, because I love the city and the only game I've ever been to was the playoff win against the Eagles in '07, I celebrated the game's outcome well enough :) But it's time for another season, and I will heed the advice of the patron saint of gambling, Hunter S. Thompson, to look at each game with <I>ruthless objectivity</I>... yes.</div> <bR> <div> MIN at NO (-5). So what to pick for the kickoff game this season? (By the way, which awful musical act is scheduled to play a forgettable set on the pregame show this year? <I>Can't wait!</I>) Ordinarily, I'd suspect that the Saints might be set up for a letdown, opening up the season after the championship of last season. Two things make me discount that-- first, the atmosphere in the Superdome will be absolutely electric-- probably like the first Monday night game after Katrina in '06 (which they won, natch). And two, I understand that the Vikings have a starting QB who is a little behind on his reps from the preseason. Guy by name of Farr or something... <B>NO - 5</B>. </div> <bR> <div> Rest of my picks over the weekend...</div> <bR> <div> <I><B>September 12:</B></I></div> <bR> <div> IND (-2) at HOU. Each season is supposed to be the turning point for the Texans, but it never seems to happen. Even if they eventually get it together, the Colts should be able to take advantage in week 1. <B>IND - 2</B>.</div> <bR> <div> ATL (-2) at PIT. At this point, I think the absence of Big Ben can only help the club, given the way he was stripped of his captaincy by his teammates. Incedentally, wouldn't it have been <I>awesome </I>if he'd had that "C" ripped off his jersey in front of the whole team like in some bad WWII movie? Am I making this up or wasn't there a scene like that in <I>Catch-22</I>? <B>PIT + 2</B>.</div> <bR> <div> AZ (-4) at STL. It will take the America's bettors a few weeks to realize that Kurt Warner's not the Cardinals QB anymore, but that it's Derek Anderson instead. I have to admit that I was really looking forward to Matt Leinart getting benched in regular season games rather than in preseason ones-- that makes me a hater, right? Anyway, it may not be very smart to pick a team starting a rookie, but... <B>STL + 4</B>.</div> <bR> <div> BAL at NJY (-2.5). The Jets have a reality show. Mark Sanchez has "poise". The Ravens have a defense. <B>BAL + 2.5</B>.</div> <div> <A HREF="id21.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Marky The Greek. "><U>Marky The Greek. </U></A></div> </td> </tr></table></body>