2007 Season

<body topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 marginheight=0 marginwidth=0> <table cellpadding=0 cellspacing=0 border=0><tr> <td valign="top" colspan=2 height=90 BGCOLOR="#006699" TEXT="#080000" bgproperties="fixed" background="002285a1erlcgo.gif"> <div> <FONT SIZE="5" COLOR="#FFCC66" FACE="Arial" ><B>www.chapmansfriend.com</B></FONT><B>     |     </B><A HREF="default.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="www.chapmansfriend.com"><U><B>home</B></U></A></div> <div>                                                   </div> <div> </div> </td> </tr><tr> <td valign="top" width=210 BGCOLOR="#FFCC66" TEXT="#080000" background="001d2c00dkelyh.gif"> <bR> </td> <td valign="top" height=390 BGCOLOR="#FFFFFF" TEXT="#080000"> <div> <I>2007 Season</I></div> <bR> <div> <I><B>2007 Season</B></I></div> <bR> <div> <B>February 3:</B></div> <div> Almost forgot about making this pick, so many other things going on now... I'll sum up my current record later, but I am pretty sure that my huge wager on the Patriots two weeks ago assured me a winning season no matter what today.</div> <bR> <div> NE (-12) vs. NYG. I know it's simplistic and not representative of the high level of football analysis I usually give (HA!), but on one side you've got Tom Brady, on the other side you've got Eli Manning. <B>NE -12</B>, and let's see how many videotaping jokes get made afterwards!</div> <bR> <bR> <div> <B>January 13:</B></div> <div> Time has come for a bold move. But first, last week's results.</div> <div> The Colts, of course, collapsed (<B>Lx5</B>), but the Giants won... unexpectedly, but fortunately for me (<B>Wx3</B>). Archie's house in the Garden District is safe from mischief. That makes my record...</div> <div> <B>44-53-2 </B><FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Trebuchet MS" >for the season, </FONT><B>5-9</B> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Trebuchet MS" >for the playoffs (weighted... in actual game picks, 3-5).</FONT></div> <bR> <div> <B>CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS:</B></div> <div> <B>A bold move.</B></div> <div> A big bet is going to be required to pull even for the season. My internal "rules" allow bigger "bets" in the playoffs, and also "prop" bets if available. But this is the biggest virtual bet ever made for this column.</div> <div> Whole continets will be shocked if the Patriots don't beat the Chargers. They are 7-1 favorites... bet 7 to win one. By my figuring, it will take <I><B>55 </B></I>of those bets to get me above the break-even line for the season. </div> <div> That's what I'm going to do. Betting 385 units to win 55. Sometimes you gotta roll the potato, as Mickey Rourke says. <B>NE to win, 1-7 odds.</B></div> <div> And this should give me (if they win!) enough flexibility to pick the spread in the two games, and still stay ahead...</div> <div> SD at NE (-13.5). I'd really have to be making fine distinctions if I said I was so confident that the Patriots would win that I laid 385 units on them, and then say "but they may not cover..." <B>NE -13.5</B>.</div> <div> I don't think I'm hating the Patriots as much as I'm supposed to be hating them, according to every sports blog I read, but that's a subject for 2 weeks from now if they win today. And if they don't win today, given my wager on them, then yes, I do hate them.</div> <div> NYG at GB (-7). <B>GB -7 </B>on the frozen tundra. <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#0000BF" FACE="Trebuchet MS" ><A HREF="http://www.newsday.com/sports/football/giants/ny-spsein0117,0,702742.story" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.newsday.com/sports/football/g"><U>Not that there's anything wrong with that.</U></A></FONT></div> <bR> <bR> <bR> <div> <B>January 13:</B></div> <div> In the first week of the playoffs, after starting 1-1, I lost the last two games to go 1-3 for the weekend. The Giants game proved that, for one week anyway, maybe Eli <I>was </I>Unstoppable (<B>L</B>). And my pick of the Titans looked good when they went up 6-0, but then the Chargers scored the last 17. Bummer (<B>L</B>).</div> <div> In yesterday's games, the Pack did blow out the Seahawks (<B>W</B>), but the Patriots fell just short of covering (<B>L</B>).</div> <div> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Trebuchet MS" >So far in the playoffs: </FONT><B>2-4</B><FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Trebuchet MS" >. For the season:</FONT> <B>41-48-2</B>.</div> <bR> <div> SD at IND (-9). Do you think the Colts are going to let anything get in the way of another chance to knock off the Patriots? I didn't think so either. i don't think this will be close. I also think the time has come to start increasing the weight of my wagers, so <B>IND -9 (x5).</B></div> <div> NYG at DAL (-7.5). The big question is, what will the Jessica Simpson factor be? Or should we just call it, as I've seen it referred to already, <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#0000BF" FACE="Trebuchet MS" ><A HREF="http://sports.aol.com/fanhouse/2008/01/11/romessica-update-jessica-sleeps-in-tonys-jerseys-likes-his-sm/" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://sports.aol.com/fanhouse/2008/01/1"><U>Romessica?</U></A> </FONT>I think the Cowboys should win, <I>but </I>as much as it pains me to say it, Eli seems to be playing well lately, so... let's say they make it a close one. Don't make me regret this one, Eli, or I'll egg Archie's house during Mardi Gras. <B>NYG + 7.5 (x3)</B>.</div> <bR> <div> <B>January 12:</B></div> <div> It's  late so I will wrap up last weekend's results tomorrow... but now, picks in the Saturday playoff games...</div> <bR> <div> <B>DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF ROUND:</B></div> <div> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Trebuchet MS" >JAX at NE (-13.5). What if the "tuck rule" never existed? </FONT><A HREF="http://kissmesuzy.blogspot.com/2008/01/twinkle-in-time.html" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://kissmesuzy.blogspot.com/2008/01/t"><U>Wonder no more!</U></A> </div> <div> But yeah, the Patriots look that good, so until further notice, I'll take them to cover. As long as there's no Zogby poll to "confirm" it. Sheesh. <B>NE - 13.5</B>.</div> <div> SEA at GB (-8). This could be the last game Favre plays at Lambeau. Or, you know, the 20th to last. Who can tell? Not even him. <B>GB - 8</B>.</div> <bR> <div> More tomorrow...</div> <bR> <div> <B>January 6:</B></div> <div> Leftover results from Week 17, the final of the regular season... You know it can't be a good sign when your only winning pick was the Arizona Cardinals (<B>W</B>), but that's what happened. The Saints once again ended their season in Soldier Field, though without the fell-good overtones of last season (<B>L</B>). Every time you listen to an NFL "analyst", remember this: I heard an allegedly sober "analyst" say, at the beginning of the season, that after the opening night game with the Colts, it was conceivable that the Saints had such a weak schedule that they would not lose another game until the final game with the Bears. If only it was Merrill Hoge saying this I could blame it on the residual concussion effects, but I don't think it was...</div> <div> Anyway... the other games featured teams not quite playing at full speed because they were already in the playoffs-- the Seahawks and the Cowboys lost (<B>L, L</B>), and the Colts gave me a push (<B>P</B>). I'll have to remember that for Week 17, 2008.</div> <div> <B>1-3-1 </B><FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Trebuchet MS" >for last week, </FONT><B>39-44-2 </B><FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Trebuchet MS" >for the season.</FONT></div> <bR> <div> As for the first day of the Wild Card round, the Seahawks came back and won big (<B>W</B>), while the Steelers... suffered from some awfully conservative playcalling at the end of the game, when they had a chance to ice the Jags. That's not relevant to why I lost the game (<B>L</B>)-- that was decided by those Roethlisberger interceptions in the first half, and the missed 2- point conversion in the 4th that would have given me a push if the last FG hadn't been allowed-- but the reason the Steelers lost was trying to hold onto a lead rather than attacking. Just like Hillary.</div> <div> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Trebuchet MS" >So far in the playoffs: </FONT><B>1-1</B><FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Trebuchet MS" >. For the season:</FONT> <B>40-45-2</B>.</div> <bR> <div> Before I pick the two Sunday games, let's go back a week. On December 30, I wrote of the 1972 Dolphins' reaction to the Patriots' 16-0 regular season mark and described them as "insufferable pricks." A bit harsh, perhaps, but I was amused to read <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#0000BF" FACE="Trebuchet MS" ><A HREF="http://www.salon.com" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.salon.com"><U>salon.com</U></A></FONT>'s King Kaufman column of <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#0000BF" FACE="Trebuchet MS" ><A HREF="http://www.salon.com/sports/col/kaufman/2008/01/02/wednesday/index.html" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.salon.com/sports/col/kaufman/"><U>January 2</U></A></FONT>, write on the same subject:</div> <bR> <div> <I>Jeez, fellas. Here's the thing to say if you don't want to sound like a bunch of pricks: "We're popping those champagne corks like we do every year, but this year we're toasting the Patriots on their undefeated regular season. Welcome to the club and good luck in the playoffs!"</I></div> <bR> <div> <I>Would that have been so hard? </I></div> <bR> <div> See? Great minds agree, "pricks" is the proper term!</div> <bR> <div> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Trebuchet MS" >NYG at TB (-3). </FONT><A HREF="http://www.repmanblog.com/repman/2007/12/eli-manning-is.html" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.repmanblog.com/repman/2007/12"><U>Eli Manning. Unstoppable. HA!</U></A> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Trebuchet MS" >Great quote from an ad man in that article, " I for one don't want to own a watch that, like Eli, might work one minute but stop the next. If Citizen continues to stand by their man, I suggest they switch from 'unstoppable' to 'unfixable.' " </FONT></div> <div> <B>TB -3</B>.</div> <div> TEN at SD (-9). This is the biggest spread of the weekend, so naturally I'll take the dog. The Chargers will probably win, but Norv Turner + Vince Young (if he plays) could = close game. <B>TEN + 9</B>.</div> <bR> <div> <B>January 5:</B></div> <div> I'll deal with the wreckage of Week 17 tomorrow... but now, picks in the Saturday playoff games...</div> <bR> <div> <B>WILD CARD PLAYOFF ROUND:</B></div> <div> WAS at SEA (-3.5). The Seahawks should put an end to the rather unlikely run for Washington. <B>SEA - 3.5</B>.</div> <div> JAX (-2) at PIT. It's never a good idea to bet against a home playoff team, especially if they are getting points. That's why I won't count Mitt Romney out of the picture in New Hampshire this week. <B>PIT + 2</B>.</div> <bR> <div> More tomorrow...</div> <bR> <div> <B>December 30:</B></div> <div> Well, the Jaguars and the Bears won (<B>W</B>, <B>W</B>), the Bills and the Browns lost (<B>L, L</B>), so the rubber game of the week was the Patriots- Dolphins game. In which I gave 22 points and took the Patriots. In which the Patriots went up by 28 points almost immediately, leading me to assume, given the "MORE POINTS!!" attitude that the team has displayed all year, that the game was won for me. And also, the game in which the Patriots did not score for the last 33:33 of the contest, allowing the Dolphins' one measly TD to lose the game for me (<B>L</B>). </div> <div> <B>2-3 </B><FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Trebuchet MS" >for last week, </FONT><B>38-41-1 </B><FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Trebuchet MS" >for the season. It will take playoff action to get a winning season this time :(</FONT></div> <bR> <div> <B>WEEK SEVENTEEN:</B></div> <div> An editorial comment: I did not pick the Patriots-Giants game, played on Saturday night, because the line of 14 points seemed iffy given the circumstances. However, I am more than happy that the Patriots won, regardless of the fact that it might make it even slightly more likely that our nation's future will include the 48th President of the United States, Thomas Brady (R- MA). No, I rooted for the Patriots and the unblemished regular season because in public, the members of the 1972 Dolphins have invariably revealed themselves as insufferable pricks on this subject. Dudes, you went 17-0 and won a Super Bowl! How insecure can you be? So hopefully the Patriots run will put an end to the yearly "we're opening up the champagne" stories after the last unbeaten team falls.</div> <div> Now, on to the last week o' the regular season...</div> <div> NO (-2) at CHI. Last season? An NFC Conference title at stake. This year? Stale beignets for the Bears if they win, hot dogs with ketchup for the Saints if they win. <B>NO -2</B>.</div> <div> SEA at ATL (-1.5). This is some kind of misprint, yes? The Falcons favored? <B>SEA + 1.5</B>.</div> <div> STL at AZ (-6). Going back to the days when this was a Cleveland Rams- Chicago Cardinals matchup, it's always been one of the NFL's most storied rivalries... Actually, it's always pretty much sucked, hasn't it? <B>AZ - 6</B>.</div> <div> DAL at WAS (-9). I realize that this line (and the Titans- Colts one as well) looks wacky only because of the irrelevant nature of the game for the Cowboys (and Colts), meaning they probably will not play full rosters. But, I still have to think that the depth on a 13-2 team should allow them to play a comptitive game, regardless of whether Romo and T.O. are in the lineup. <B>DAL + 9</B>.</div> <div> TEN (-6) at IND. Same reasoning as above, <B>IND + 6</B>.</div> <bR> <bR> <div> <B>December 23:</B></div> <div> Other than the Steelers tanking (<B>L)</B>, the week ended up very nicely after the initial win... the Bucs crushed the even-more-hapless Falcons (<B>W</B>), Washington beat the Eli-tastic Giants (<B>W</B>), and, shocker of shockers, the Dolphins actually <I>won </I>(<B>W</B>)!</div> <div> <B>4-1 </B><FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Trebuchet MS" >for last week, </FONT><B>36-38-1 </B><FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Trebuchet MS" >for the season.</FONT></div> <bR> <div> <B>WEEK SIXTEEN:</B></div> <div> CLE (-3) at CIN. The Bengals seem to have disappointed all season, which is almost enough to make me go against the grain and pick them here. But in the Battle of Ohio, What Can Brown Do For You? (Sorry.) <B>CLE - 3</B>.</div> <div> NYG (-3) at BUF. I wish I could find a link to the <I>awesome </I>parody of Peyton's "3 seconds to sack..." commercial, which in Eli's terms becomes "3 seconds to interception...", and of course, he delivers on that interception. Hee. Will Eli or Isaiah be the first to go from New York? <B>BUF + 3</B>.</div> <div> OAK at JAX (-13). A lot of points, but have you <I>seen </I>the Raiders defense lately? The rushing defense numbers in particular were enough to make me start Maurice Jones-Drew instean of Marion Barber in my fantasy championship game, so it better pay off. <B>JAX -13</B>.</div> <div> GB (-8.5) at CHI. A storm coming in tomorrow, which may keep offense down and the game close. Plus, there's the Orton factor...</div> <div> <IMG SRC="3d44dfa0.gif" border=0 width="333" height="250" ALIGN="BOTTOM" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0"></div> <div> Is that the face of a leader or what? <B>CHI + 8.5</B>.</div> <div> MIA at NE (-22). OK, you won your game. Now we're gonna see it blow up real good. <B>NE - 22</B>.</div> <bR> <div> <B>December 16:</B></div> <div> Last week, the Dolphins didn't show up and the Eagles disappointed against Eli and Co. (<B>L, L</B>). But the Packers won big (<B>W</B>), and the Chargers and Bengals both scored late to give me wins-- the Chargers a TD (by LT, hee) to win in OT (<B>W</B>), and the Bengals a late FG to cover the spread (<B>W</B>). Then in the early Thursday game this week, the Texans gave me a head start on the week (<B>W</B>).</div> <div> <B>3-2 </B><FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Trebuchet MS" >for last week, </FONT><B>32-37-1 </B><FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Trebuchet MS" >for the season. After the Thursday game, </FONT><B>1-0 </B><FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Trebuchet MS" >for the week, </FONT><B>33-37-1 </B><FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Trebuchet MS" >for the season.</FONT></div> <bR> <div> <B>WEEK FIFTEEN:</B></div> <div> ATL at TB (-13.5). Taping a farewell message to the player's lockers? Classy move, Bobby Petrino. When he leaves the Arkansas job, the only evidence will be a scrawled note on a cocktail napkin. I was surprised to see this stat-- NFL teams with interim coaches as the result of in-season coaching changes have <I>horrible </I>records. In baseball and basketball, the new managers/ coaches usually can get their teams to play well for at least a short period of time, just because of the breath of fresh air (Bill James called it the Shotton Syndrome). But in this case, the Falcons appear to be a lost franchise this season, and don't remind me that I thought they would surprise everybody by being competent in the wake of Vick's departure. (That still doesn't mean that Vick was ever really that good a QB!) <B>TB - 13.5</B>.</div> <div> BAL (-3.5) at MIA. I made a rash pledge to keep picking the Dolphins until they won, and I do think they'll win eventually. It might not be until the Obama Administration, but still... A pledge is a pledge. <B>MIA + 3.5</B>.</div> <div> JAX at PIT (-3.5). I wonder in Roethlisberger this season is like <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#0000BF" FACE="Trebuchet MS" ><A HREF="http://www.televisionwithoutpity.com/Shows/30-Rock/Stories/Ludachristmas" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.televisionwithoutpity.com/Sho"><U>Liz Lemon's brother who kept reliving the day before his high-school-era skiing accident</U></A></FONT>... Big Ben is reliving the season before his motorcycle accident, when he won the Super Bowl. If the same was true of Dylan, would he have ended up recording <I>Blonde On Blonde </I>again? <B>PIT - 3.5</B>.</div> <div> WAS at NYG (-4.5). I was tempted to take the Bears' game in honor of Kyle Orton's return to the starting lineup, but I think I am locked in to picking against Eli Manning until the Giants lose... <B>WAS + 4.5</B>.</div> <bR> <div> <B>December 13:</B></div> <div> I will recap the past week a bit later, but there is a Thursday night NFL Network game-- or so I'm told. To watch these games I have to go online to watch a Danish feed of the game, and for a Denver/Houston matchup... ah, isn't there a brand-new <I>30 Rock </I>on tonight?</div> <div> Still...</div> <bR> <div> DEN at HOU (Pick 'em). I will never back down from a pick 'em game. Take <B>HOU</B>.</div> <bR> <div> Be back on the weekend for the full slate of predictions...</div> <bR> <div> <B>December 9:</B></div> <div> After near perfection... The Suck returns. Only the Bucs won for me (<B>W</B>), and Washington and Cleveland lost games they could (should?) have won(<B>L, L</B>). I have no defense for my Bears selection (<B>L</B>), and as you will see below, I believe it is only a matter of time for the Dolphins (<B>L</B>)</div> <div> <B>1-4 </B><FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Trebuchet MS" >for the week, </FONT><B>29-35-1 </B><FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Trebuchet MS" >for the season. </FONT></div> <bR> <div> <B>WEEK FOURTEEN:</B></div> <div> MIA at BUF (-7). At this point, it's like walking away from a slot machine that you know is gonna pay off any minute. <B>MIA + 7</B>.</div> <div> NYG at PHI (-3). I could say the same thing for this game... You know Eli is going to implode sooner or later, yes? <B>PHI -3</B>.</div> <div> SD at TEN (Pick 'em). I will pick the Chargers, but I feel that they are still underperforming. You know who I bet could get them to play to their potential. Coach Eric Taylor of the Dillon Panthers, as long as he could bring the Smash and Riggins along. <B>SD</B>.</div> <div> OAK at GB (-10). Huh. Rich Gannon is <I>announcing </I>this game. Wasn't he the Raiders' QB last time they were good? Fun fact from <I>USA Today </I>: "The Raiders have lost their last 10 road games in December." <B>GB - 10</B>.</div> <div> STL at CIN (-6.5). Rams will start Brock Berlin, reasoning that it may bring back the magic of the Dieter Brock era. It worked when the Steelers started Bradshaw Vienna that one time, didn't it? (Think about that one-- it'll come to you eventually.) <B>CIN - 6.5</B>.</div> <div> <B>December 2:</B></div> <div> Near perfection in Week Twelve! And the "near" part was not due to missing the "exact score" in the TB- Washington game (I predicted 20-14, it ended up 19-13, close enough for me). I went into the Monday night game 4-0 in the Marky The Greek picks (winning with Tampa Bay, the Saints, the Eagles and the Bengals [<B>W,W,W,W</B>]) and 6-0 in the <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#0000BF" FACE="Trebuchet MS" ><A HREF="http://www.lockedup.com" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.lockedup.com"><U>lockedup.com</U></A> </FONT>picks, needing the Dolphins to beat the 16 point spread and the combined score to be over 40.5 to be absolutely perfect in both categories. Then the mud and the slop (really, the NFL should have stepped in and declared the game unplayable-- did you <I>see</I> that field?) made it clear that 40 and a half combined points was out of the question-- 16 combined points would be a miracle. Then the final score ended up being 3-0. I know it's a cheap soccer joke, but Chelsea has probably won a half dozen matches this year by at least 3 goals. Hell, my beloved Reading Royals lost a 7-4 match earlier this season. But, low scoring at least gave me a <B>W </B>for the Dolphins pick... (Just checked the Chelsea thing. Only 3 wins by at least 3 goals so far, but both Arsenal and Liverpool have 5, including 7-0 and 8-0 shellackings of Champions League competition...)</div> <div> <B>5-0 </B><FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Trebuchet MS" >for the week, </FONT><B>28-31-1 </B><FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Trebuchet MS" >for the season. </FONT></div> <bR> <div> <B>WEEK THIRTEEN:</B></div> <div> Nobody asked me, but... I say Hawaii and whoever comes out of the 1-AA playoffs to match up for the BCS championship. Everybody else blew their chances when they had 'em. Screw 'em all :)</div> <div> Back to the paid athletes... OK, the <I>openly </I>paid athletes...</div> <div> BUF at WAS (-5.5). There isn't a lot of experience in playing games under the circumstances that Washington faces this week. Will they turn their feelings about the Sean Taylor tragedy into their performances, or will they be distracted? The only remotely similar case I can think of was the <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#0000BF" FACE="Trebuchet MS" ><A HREF="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Street_(basketball)" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Stree"><U>Chris Street</U></A></FONT> incident at Iowa back in 1993, when the Hawks<FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#0000BF" FACE="Trebuchet MS" ><A HREF="http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9F0CE7DB1330F93AA15752C0A965958260&n=Top/Reference/Times%20Topics/Organizations/U/University%20of%20Iowa" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.ht"><U> came back to win after being 15 points down with less than 4 minutes left</U></A></FONT> in their first game after his death. Will the same happen here, will they play through the pain? Who knows, but I guess everybody (Bills fans probably excluded) would like to see them do it. <B>WAS - 5.5</B>.</div> <div> NYJ at MIA (-1). They gotta win sometime. <B>MIA - 1</B>.</div> <div> TB at NO (-3). Despite last week's big win, I don't think the Saints have the mojo back this year, and the Bucs are playing well. <B>TB + 3</B>.</div> <div> CLE at AZ (Pick 'em). America: Making money betting against the Football Cardinals since 1947. <B>CLE</B>.</div> <div> NYG (-1.5) at CHI. Ah, the Battle of the Perpetually Disappointing Quarterbacks. If only the Sex Cannon would be benched in favor of Griese, then we'd have the matchup of Quarterbacks Who Are So Much Worse Than Their Fathers That It's Embarrassing. Strangely enough, I think the Bears will suck less. I have no hard evidence to explain this feeling. <B>CHI + 1.5</B>.</div> <div> <B>November 25:</B></div> <div> A step backward at 2-3 last week... The Packers and Seahawks performed as expected (<B>W, W</B>), but though they came close, the Lions disappointed (um, I bet on the <I>Lions</I>? Really?) (<B>L)</B>, and the Saints and Titans<B> </B>followed suit. (<B>L, L</B>).</div> <div> <B>2-3 </B><FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Trebuchet MS" >for the week, </FONT><B>23-31-1 </B><FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Trebuchet MS" >for the season. </FONT></div> <bR> <div> <B>WEEK TWELVE:</B></div> <div> I wisely stayed away from the Thanksgiving games, because turkey brining and pro football analysis do not, based on past experience, seem to mix. This prevented me from playing the "throwback-unis-or-no-throwback-unis" guessing game, and trying to devine whether the Lions would respond to the Bobby Layne era look.</div> <div> WAS at TB (-3). I have to admit I've given the Bucs little attention this season, but it seems Jeff Garcia has resurrected his career nicely. Building on a tradition from Norman "The Man" Chad, the inspiration for this blog lo these many years ago (before he became a shill for TV poker), once a season I predict the <I>exact score </I>of a contest. Tampa Bay 20, Washington 14. <B>TB -3</B>.</div> <div> NO (-3) at CAR. An injury to Vinny Testaverde makes his start questionable and robs me of a chance to make a Y. A. Tittle reference. Wait, I just did! Sneaky! <B>NO - 3</B>.</div> <div> TEN (-1.5) at CIN. Yea, the Bengals have been disappointing, but one last chance for them. <B>CIN + 1.5</B>.</div> <div> PHI at NE (-22). Stipulated, the Patriots are awesome this year, and yes, they do like to run up the score, but if you think I'm going to pass up 22 points, put me on the Mike Gravel bandwagon. <B>PHI + 22</B>.</div> <div> MIA at PIT (-16). Another huge line. Pete "parity/ any-given-Sunday" Rozelle must be spinning away. My feeling is this, and it's similar to <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#0000BF" FACE="Trebuchet MS" ><A HREF="http://www.salon.com/sports " TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.salon.com/sports "><U>King Kaufman's</U></A> </FONT>"What The Heck!" picks of the Dolphins, is that Miami has to win sooner or later, so keep picking them no matter what the line until they do. I can even hedge my bet by saying I think they'll lose, but at least come close. So, <B>MIA + 16</B>.</div> <bR> <div> <B>November 18:</B></div> <div> Third winning week in a row. Though it wasn't my best moment when I confidently said that "I think the Saints will win" while taking the Rams and the points, then seeing the Rams win after all. Still pays out money at the sports book... (<B>W</B>). After the Eagles and the Bengals both won outright (<B>W, W</B>), and even factoring in the Lions' loss to the Buzzsaw that is the Arizona Cardinals (<B>L</B>), all I needed was a typical Payton Manning performance to give me another 4-1 week. Bleh. Vinatieri may have lost the game in the last minute with that horrible kick, but Manning lost it for me by throwing all those interceptions. I almost thought it was John Elway circa 1985 out there (<B>L</B>).</div> <div> <B>3-2 </B><FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Trebuchet MS" >for the week, </FONT><B>21-28-1 </B><FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Trebuchet MS" >for the season. </FONT></div> <bR> <div> <B>WEEK ELEVEN (it's one louder):</B></div> <div> CAR at GB (-10). Ten points is a lot to give, but the Packers are going up against Bobby Layne, after all (thank you, Panthers, for starting Vinny again, giving me a chance to name-drop another olden QB!). Though Favre isn't exactly a rookie either... I can just imagine how happy the Packers' brass is about that Wrangler ad which seems to suggest that Brett plays tackle football in a cow pasture somewhere in Mississippi during the off-season with his old buddies. That's a breach of contract suit waiting to happen. <B>GB - 10</B>.</div> <div> NO at HOU (-1). Shamed by losing to the Rams, either the Saints will come back and win this week or forget about that guest shot on <I>K-Ville</I>. <B>NO + 1</B>.</div> <div> NYG (-3) at DET. Can't believe I'm saying this, but the Lions are underappreciated by the line this week. Is it possible that Matt Millen was right all this time. Nah, that's crazy talk. <B>DET + 3</B>.</div> <div> CHI at SEA (-5.5). The return of the Sex Cannon. Enough said. <B>SEA - 5.5</B>.</div> <div> TEN at DEN (-2). This is the time for my regularly scheduled aside regarding Notre Dame football. Damn Dookies... the basketball team wins when you hate them, but the football team couldn't pull out a win in a righteous cause? Oh, and I understand this Vince Young plays pretty well in nationally televised games. <B>TEN + 2</B>.</div> <bR> <div> <B>November 11:</B></div> <div> See, it just took me a while to get going! Second 4-1 week in a row. My only loss was taking Washington and giving 3 1/2 points... they won by 3 (grrr) (<B>L</B>). The Saints and Bills both won (Saints won <I>big</I>) (<B>W, W</B>), the Browns came back to win at the end (<B>W</B>), and then the Monday night game was a cakewalk for the Steelers. Not only did they crush the Eagles (<B>W</B>), they rolled up enough points to allow me to win the "over" by the end of the half.</div> <div> <B>4-1 </B><FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Trebuchet MS" >for the week, </FONT><B>18-26-1 </B><FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Trebuchet MS" >for the season. Um, another 3 weeks like this and I'm back at .500!</FONT></div> <bR> <div> <B>WEEK TEN:</B></div> <div> PHI at WAS (-3). Eagles have nowhere to go but up. Andy Reid, I know that having your home described as a "drug emporium" is a bad thing, but on the plus side, isn't the word "emporium" kind of fun? It has a very nostalgic Gilded-Age feel to it. So there's that. <B>PHI + 3</B>.</div> <div> STL at NO (-11.5). Yes, the Rams suck, and yes, I think the Saints will win (Who Dat!), but 11.5 points is too much to pass up. <B>STL + 11.5</B>.</div> <div> CIN at BAL (-3.5). Continuing a trend from last week, this is where I don't have much to say about the game, so I will mock the <I><B>1-9 </B></I>Fighting Irish. Hee! Oh, yeah, and I pick the Mighty Bengals of Cincinnati. <B>CIN + 3.5</B>.</div> <div> DET at AZ (-1). Hot Lions secondary + erratic Kurt Warner = FUN! <B>DET + 1</B>.</div> <div> IND (-3.5) at SD. Colts are mad about last week, and they should take it out on the Chargers... <B>IND - 3.5</B>.</div> <bR> <div> <B>November 4:</B></div> <div> Very good week for a change. It was even better with my <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#0000BF" FACE="Trebuchet MS" ><A HREF="http://www.lockedupsports.com" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.lockedupsports.com"><U>Lockedupsports</U></A> </FONT>selections, where I combined 4 of my 5 picks from here, one different game, and a few over/under selections to notch an 8-0 week. Needless to say, I second-guessed myself for deciding not to take the Saints game here (which I won), instead of taking the Rams + 3. resulting in my only blemish for the week (<B>L</B>). Otherwise, no complaints, so, thank you, Eagles, Bills, Colts, and especially Brett Favre (<B>W, W, W, W</B>). A split second before the winning TD pass on Monday night, I remembered that when I played Strat-O-Matic football, I would <I>always </I>throw the long ball in such a situation-- in fact, eventually my brother, playing against me, would learn this tendency and defend against the bomb. In the split second before the Packers snapped the ball, I wondered if Favre might have the same idea, and whether Mike Shanahan was as smart as my brother in anticipating it. Short answers? Yes. And no.</div> <div> <B>4-1 </B><FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Trebuchet MS" >for the week, </FONT><B>14-25-1 </B><FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Trebuchet MS" >for the season. Still lots of ground to make up.</FONT></div> <bR> <div> <B>WEEK NINE:</B></div> <div> CIN (-1) at BUF. Forget the hype. This is the <I>real </I>Super Bowl 41 and a half! <B>BUF + 1</B>.</div> <div> JAX at NO (-3.5). Gumbo Party! <B>NO - 3.5</B>.</div> <div> WAS (-3.5) at NYJ. I have nothing really to add concerning this game, so I'll use this space to say-- Notre Dame, 1-8. Ha. Ha. Ha. <B>WAS - 3.5</B>.</div> <div> SEA at CLE (-1.5). Doing a heckuva job, Brownies. <B>CLE - 1.5</B>.</div> <div> BAL at PIT (-9.5). Those are more points than I usually like to give, but I just have a feeling... <B>PIT - 9.5</B>.</div> <div> <B>October 28:</B></div> <div> Say... Do I get points for correctly calling the <I>Viva Laughlin </I>demise? (Yeah, me and an entire TV industry.)  I somehow knew that when I mocked the Cardinals last week, they would get me back, and they did so, by beating the spread when I picked them to lose badly ((<B>L</B>). And the Broncos were not quite as affected by proximity to the Miracle Rockies as I'd expected (<B>L</B>). </div> <div> In my defense, two of my picks last week were <I>extremely </I>frustrating losses. The Jets, at +6, lost by... 7 (<B>L</B>). And that Titans-Texans game... I was listening to that one, as the Texans came back from a huuge hole and led late, only to allow themselves to be beaten in the final minute by the immortal Kerry Collins. Beaten by 2 points. When I had them + 1 1/2. Such is life for the prognosticator (<B>L</B>). At least the Colts kicked ass (<B>W</B>).</div> <div> <B>1-4 </B><FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Trebuchet MS" >for the week, </FONT><B>10-24-1 </B><FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Trebuchet MS" >for the season.</FONT></div> <bR> <div> <B>WEEK EIGHT:</B></div> <div> CLE (-3) at STL. The Rams have to win sooner or later. Might as well be now. <B>STL + 3</B>.</div> <div> PHI (-1) at MIN. Sometime in the 2nd quarter, it's gonna hit the Eagles that they let Brian Griese beat them in the clutch last week, and the rage and self-loathing will fuel a victory. <B>PHI -1</B>.</div> <div> BUF at NYJ (-3). Both teams ask themselves, "Hey! We're just as crappy as the Giants and the Dolphins! Why didn't we get to go to London?" <B>BUF + 3</B>.</div> <div> IND (-6.5) at CAR. This week's old-timey quarterback to use as a reference point to the elderly Vinny Testaverde? Let's try "Otto Graham" for $200, Alex. <B>IND - 6.5</B>.</div> <div> GB at DEN (-3). I understand that this Favre fellow enjoys playing in nationally-televised games. Perhaps a wager on his team might be in order. <B>GB + 3</B>.</div> <bR> <div> <B>October 21:</B></div> <div> I think my chances of having a successful season are no better than the chances that <I>Viva Laughlin </I>will have one too... Last week, the Mighty Bengals of Cincinnati (obligatory yearly <I>Sports Night </I>reference) lost when I confidently expected them to clean up (<B>L</B>), the Cardinals (I took the <I>Cardinals </I>and <I>gave points? </I>Really??) lost to a contemporary of Sid Luckman's (<B>L</B>), and the Patriots continued to play like cyborgs and crushed the Cowboys (<B>L</B>). On the plus side, the Ravens did win handily (<B>W</B>), and on the push side, the Titans, well, pushed (<B>P</B>).</div> <div> <B>1-3-1 </B><FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Trebuchet MS" >for the week, </FONT><B>9-20-1 </B><FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Trebuchet MS" >for the season.</FONT></div> <bR> <div> <B>WEEK SEVEN:</B></div> <div> TEN (-1.5) at HOU. With Vince Young uncertain to play, I'm much less eager to take the Titans. Now watch him play, throw for 300 yards, 4 TDs, run for 130 and a score, plus compose a <I>Times </I>op-ed piece on "The Democrats: Timid with Power" at halftime. <B>HOU - 1.5</B>.</div> <div> AZ at WAS (-8.5). It just seems right to be picking against the Cardinals, you know? Like it was meant to be? <B>WAS - 8.5</B>.</div> <div> NYJ at CIN (-6). I expect the Bengals to win, but I hope the Jets can keep it close. <B>NYJ + 6</B>.</div> <div> PIT (-3.5) at DEN. The Broncos are feeling forgotten and left out in the midst of Rockies' World's Series fever, and will play half-heartedly. <B>PIT - 3.5</B>.</div> <div> IND (-3) at JAX. The Colts should remain undefeated, even if they are on the road. <B>IND - 3</B>.</div> <bR> <div> Rockies? <I>World's Series? </I>Funny, I don't ever remember doing any acid, so this can't be a hallucination...</div> <bR> <div> <B>October 14:</B></div> <div> Ironic. The one game last week about which I felt most insecure, the one I thought sounded crazy, was the only game I won last week. I mean, who in their right mind would have thought the Bears would beat the Packers in that situation? (<B>W</B>). But I came close on the Browns game, until that last-minute fumble recovery for a Pats-TD that not only screwed me on the point spread but <I>also </I>screwed me on the over/under on another site. Damn you, football gods! (<B>L</B>). Otherwise, garden variety losses-- the Saints have obviously lost the magic, but on a related matter, I have discovered that many New Orleans residents <I>love </I>watching <I>K-Ville</I>, even though the show might not exactly be <I>Homicide</I>, just for the fun. <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#0000BF" FACE="Trebuchet MS" ><A HREF="http://www.nola.com/rose/t-p/index.ssf?/base/living-0/119173808234850.xml&coll=1&thispage=1" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.nola.com/rose/t-p/index.ssf?/"><U>"Gumbo Party!"</U></A> </FONT>(<B>L</B>). In other news, the Chiefs and Broncos also lost for me (<B>L, L</B>).</div> <div> <B>1-4 </B><FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Trebuchet MS" >for the week, </FONT><B>8-17 </B><FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Trebuchet MS" >for the season.</FONT></div> <bR> <div> <B>WEEK SIX:</B></div> <div> CIN (-3) at KC. The Chiefs appear to be worse than I thought, and the Bengals are coming off the bye week. <B>CIN - 3</B>.</div> <div> TEN at TB (-3). I'm starting to think Vince Young might have a future in this league. <B>TEN + 3</B>.</div> <div> STL at BAL (-9). That's a lot of points to give up, more than I normally like to, but the Rams are a whole lot of bad this season. <B>BAL -9</B>.</div> <div> NE (-5.5) at DAL. The Patriots have to have an off game sometime. The Cowboys already had theirs last week and still won, so <B>DAL + 5.5</B>.</div> <div> CAR at AZ (-4.5). Vinny Testaverde might play for the Panthers? Why don't they just try digging up Sammy Baugh or something? <B>AZ - 4.5</B>.</div> <bR> <div> <B>October 7:</B></div> <div> Well... I nailed the analysis on the Bears game, anyway! (<B>W</B>). And the Patriots seem a dependable bet when they are in the national TV game (<B>W</B>). But otherwise, in Week 4, I doubted the Packers too much (<B>L</B>), underestimated how bad the Rams were (<B>L</B>), and the Niners game... ah, no explanations there (<B>L</B>).</div> <div> <B>2-3 </B><FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Trebuchet MS" >for the week, </FONT><B>7-13 </B><FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Trebuchet MS" >for the season.</FONT></div> <bR> <div> <B>WEEK FIVE:</B></div> <div> CAR at NO (-3). I refuse to believe that the Saints' magic is gone. But then, I am so enamored of New Orleans that I watch <I>K-Ville </I>hoping for a random glimpse of Cafe Du Monde. <B>NO - 3</B>.</div> <div> CLE at NE (-16.5). The Patriots can't keep covering these huge spreads, can they? Sooner or later they have to have an off week, right? RIGHT? <B>CLE + 16.5</B>.</div> <div> JAX (-3) at KC. It seems like kind of a stretch to take a road favorite here when the Chiefs haven't played that badly so far, unlike, say, the Rams ( 3 1/2 point underdogs at home to the <I>Cardinals?</I> The Greatest Show on Turf seems very long ago). <B>KC + 2</B>.</div> <div> SD at DEN (-1). I think the Broncos should win outright, so this seems like a gimme. A modest proposal for the Chargers-- let Schottenheimer coach the team for the regular season, since he can apparently handle that, but hire a "playoff coach" for the postseason. Too radical? <B>DEN - 1</B>.</div> <div> CHI at GB (-3.5). This game reminds me so much of another game years ago that it's eerie...</div> <div> In that game, one team which was rolling along uncontested played a rivalry game against a team that was struggling. But it was on national TV, so I just <I>knew </I>that the struggling team would capitalize on the rivalry aspect of the game, catch the favored team napping, and steal a win on national TV. Sound reasoning, right?</div> <div> Unfortunately for my analysis, that game matched the '85 Bears against the Packers on a Monday night, and the Bears ran over the Pack, with Refrigerator Perry scoring his first rushing TD just to rub some salt into the Packers' eyes. (In time, this igniting of the Fridge Perry cult had the unfortunate outcome of having him score a rushing TD in the Super Bowl instead of Walter Payton, which just ain't right.) So, my hunches aren't always on the money. And the '07 Packers aren't at the level of the '85 Bears, obviously. But it's a rivalry game, it's a national TV game, and nobody expects the Bears to win, based on how sucky they were last week. I'll play a hunch. <B>CHI + 3.5</B>.</div> <bR> <div> <B>September 30:</B></div> <div> Another rough week. It turns out that, yes, 16 1/2 points is a lot of points, but the Patriots are kind of good and easily able to cover that spread on occasion (<B>L</B>). Once again, the Falcons did not live up to expectations, and lost (<B>L</B>). The Browns also lost, but made it close enough for me (<B>W</B>). And then the high-profile disasters... The Sex Cannon surprised me. I thought there was no way he would play as badly as he had so far this season, but he showed me what he was made of , reached deep inside himself, and actually played himself out of a job. Even for the mostly unremarkable history of Bears' quarterbacks, he has set himself apart from the pack. He is the Millard Fillmore* of Bears' quarterbacks. But beware, Bears fans... That makes Brian Griese the Franklin Pierce of quarterbacks (<B>L</B>). And the Saints... Where did the magic go? I'd say that guys like Drew Brees were reverting to form, but Brees was better than this even when he was with the Chargers (<B>L</B>).</div> <bR> <div> * I am required by my professional standing as a historian to say that Millard Fillmore is not the worst president in American history ( in order, bottom up, Buchanan, George W., and Pierce, though Dubya still has it in him to reach the bottom), but Fillmore's the easiest punchline for "bad president". It's the funny name. <I>Millard Fillmore!</I></div> <bR> <div> <B>1-4 </B><FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Trebuchet MS" >for the week, </FONT><B>5-10 </B><FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Trebuchet MS" >for the season.</FONT></div> <bR> <div> <B>WEEK FOUR:</B></div> <div> CHI (-3) at DET. Not because of the Bears' QB switch (though Griese is not exactly The Answer), but because of the astonishing number of injuries on the defense, I think this will be the Lions' day. <B>DET + 3</B>, and let's see how long the Kyle Orton bandwagon takes to form.</div> <div> GB (-1 1/2) at MIN. You know, it just doesn't seem that Brett Favre plays that well in the Metrodome, though (I just checked) he is 5-5 in the last 10 seasons there. Still, since the Packers have suddenly become the "surprise" team of the seson, I say this will be an off game. What do they call them, "trap" games? <B>MIN + 1 1/2</B>.</div> <div> STL at DAL (-13). Thirteen points are a lot of points. <B>STL + 13</B>.</div> <div> SEA (-2) at SF. The Niners are playing surprisingly well, so why pick against them at home? <B>SF + 2</B>.</div> <div> NE (-7) at CIN. The Patriots are playing like the last thing in the world you'd want to do is bet against them.<FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#0000BF" FACE="Trebuchet MS" ><A HREF="http://deadspin.com/sports/poop/bring-your-umbrellas-to-paul-brown-stadium-on-monday-304783.php" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://deadspin.com/sports/poop/bring-yo"><U> Just watch out for the pigeon shit.</U></A></FONT> <B>NE - 7</B>.</div> <bR> <div> <B>September 23:</B></div> <bR> <div> The Greek is back... I was away the past weekend in what was, as the old joke went, a secure, undisclosed location. Without ready interent access available to update this page. But I did make selections. First, to mop-up the first week...</div> <bR> <div> The Thursday night kickoff game was a fat disappointment from the Saints (<B>L</B>), and the trend continued through most of the Sunday games. The Bears were within the spread and then surrendered to the Dark Side of the Sex Cannon (<B>L</B>). The Falcons did not respond to the absence of Vick as I had anticipated, about which I shall comment later (<B>L</B>). The Rams lost outright (<B>L</B>). Only the Pack managed to come through a winner (<B>W</B>). So, after Week 1, my record was <FONT SIZE="4" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Trebuchet MS" ><B>1-4</B></FONT>.</div> <bR> <div> <B>WEEK TWO:</B></div> <div> Here, reproduced in its entirety, is what may look like evidence from the Pete Rose gambling investigation, but is actually my sheet of various picks from last week's games,  so as to establish the authenticity of the picks...</div> <div> <IMG SRC="3d2c6710.jpg" border=0 width="454" height="625" ALIGN="BOTTOM" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0"></div> <div> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Trebuchet MS" >The top picks (8 of them) are picks I made at an online site, not (for the benefit of interested federal agents) a gambling site, but a site that allows comparision to other entrants. Pick 8 games a week (against the spread or over/under). There's also some angle about how you could possibly make money if-- and I am vague on the details-- somebody "buys" your picks for the next week on the basis of past success, but that sounds dubious. Anyway, </FONT><A HREF="http://www.lockedupsports.com" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.lockedupsports.com"><U>lockedupsports.com</U></A>.</div> <div> Of those 8 picks, usually 5 of them will be the choices I make here. The checkmarks are besides those, based on various versions the the emerging spread. And the pottom picks? Straight-up winners. "W"'s and "L"'s scribbled besides the picks hurriedly as the results came over the TV at a sports bar :) The Philly pick, obviously, was a loss, so... 7-9 straight-up. Wow. That's bad.</div> <div> So for the purposes of this page, my 5 selections were...</div> <bR> <div> <B>ATL +10</B></div> <div> <B>NYG - 1</B></div> <div> <B>DEN -10</B></div> <div> <B>KC + 12</B></div> <div> <B>NE - 3.5</B></div> <bR> <div> Atlanta... I will have a weakness for them all season, because I feel that since Vick was a generally below-average quarterback, just replacing him with an <I>average </I>QB should lead to success. Unfortunately, I fail to take into account that Joey Harrington is not an average QB, but a below-average QB as well. I still say-- replace Vick with the 2007 equivalent of <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#0000BF" FACE="Trebuchet MS" ><A HREF="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/MorrEa00.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/pl"><U>Earl Morrall</U></A></FONT>, and they are contenders. Or maybe I'll get to prove my point when Byron Leftwich (a decidedly <I>above-average </I>QB) gets ready to play.</div> <div> Anyway, my reasoning is that the line will under-appreciate the Falcons, but the problem is that I keep picking them to actually win the games. But in Week 2, they lost, but beat the spread. <B>W</B>.</div> <bR> <div> The Giants? I assumed that Tom Coughlin would my-way-or-the-highway this team to be in peak performing status. That, or his head would explode. Neither happened. <B>L</B>.</div> <bR> <div> Denver against the Raiders? Mike Shanahan <I>lives </I>to crush the Raiders! Easy pick, yes? Well, no, at least not by 10 points. <B>L</B>.</div> <bR> <div> Chiefs + 12 against the Bears. Again, my belief in Bad Rex led me to bet on the Bears winning the game but losing against the spread. <B>W</B>.</div> <bR> <div> Patriots on Sunday night. Was there any doubt that even in the wake of the spying scandal (which, to be honest about it, I'm not sure should have been punishable. Hey, Other Teams-- hide your signals better! There's a reason the shortstop and second basemen cover their faces from the opposing dugout when they are signalling who's going to cover second in case of a steal attempt), the Pats would make like Secretariat and demonstrate a little dominance? <B>W</B>.</div> <bR> <div> So... <FONT SIZE="4" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Trebuchet MS" ><B>3-2 </B></FONT>for the week, <FONT SIZE="4" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Trebuchet MS" ><B>4-6 </B></FONT>for the season.</div> <bR> <div> <B>WEEK THREE:</B></div> <bR> <div> BUF at NE (-16.5). I know it's the Patriots, and they will win, but-- sixteen and a half points? Who are they playing, Nore Dame? Aaaannnddd there's my excuse to post this pic:</div> <div> <IMG SRC="3d3d3670.gif" border=0 width="211" height="359" ALIGN="BOTTOM" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0"></div> <div> <B>BUF + 16.5</B>. Again, that's <I>sixteen and a half points</I>...</div> <div> CLE at OAK (-3). It escapes me as to why the Raiders should be favored here or in any week in the forseeable future... Then again, it is the Browns, but <B>CLE + 3</B>.</div> <div> CAR (-3.5) at ATL. See above. Besides, remember that Tom Petty song lyric, "even Joey Harrington gets lucky sometime". <B>ATL + 3.5</B>.</div> <div> DAL at CHI (-3.5). I predict that The Sex Cannon will keep mistakes to a minimum. <B>CHI - 3.5</B>.</div> <div> TEN at NO (-4). I love Vince Young's play, and the Saints are struggling, but believe me, getting back to the Superdome will create some momentum-- for the team and the city. I almost still hear the cheering from the playoff game back in January... <B>NO -4</B>.</div> <bR> <bR> <div> <B>September 9:</B></div> <bR> <div> Ah, off to a flying start with that Thursday game...</div> <bR> <div> PHI (-3) at GB. All those not-so-nice things I said about Favre last year? Disregard them until he puts up a 5 interception game, and take him and the Pack with points at home. <B>GB + 3</B></div> <div> ATL at MIN (-3). Obscured by the Michael Vick, Lover Of Dogs saga is the fact that his absence has nearly always made the Falcons a better team. Since the Falcons had already gone out and gotten some better threats at WR to try to help Vick become an adequate passing threat, that means that Joey Harrington will actually have better targets to throw to than he ever had in Detroit. So... <B>ATL + 3</B>, and prepare for the possibility that the Falcons will actually prosper from their star quarterback doing time.</div> <div> CHI at SD (-6). I can possibly see the Chargers being favored in this one, especially if the Sex Cannon has a trademarked lousy game, <B><IMG SRC="3d0f0f10.jpg" border=0 width="240" height="241" ALIGN="BOTTOM" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0"></B>but 6 points seems too many. <B>CHI + 6</B></div> <div> CAR at STL (-1). Rams should win at home, so might as well give the point. <B>STL -1</B></div> <bR> <bR> <div> <B>September 6:</B></div> <bR> <bR> <div> First of all, let's finish up the stats from last season... My first recorded losing season...</div> <div> It ended with three consecutive losing games, making the final record <B>49-46-1</B>. Only 51.6%. Since this is "virtual" gambling, in lieu of losing thumbs or kneecaps, I lost the letters "H"  and "C" for the next season. So from now on any word using those letters will look like this:  ouston Texans, or maybe  in inatti Bengals... <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#0000BF" FACE="Trebuchet MS" ><A HREF="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0087932/quotes" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0087932/quot"><U>"Charlie, they took my letters!!!!"</U></A></FONT></div> <bR> <div> No, just kidding. But it was an opportunity to paraphrase a quote from the immortal classic, <I>The Pope of Greenwich Village</I>...</div> <bR> <div> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Trebuchet MS" >Why did I finish up the season so poorly? The Saints pick against the Bears was sentimental, I acknowledge, but who could have expected the Colts to finally win the big game against the Patriots? And in the championship game (I continue to be persnickety in not calling it the Super Bowl), I honestly thought the Bears' running game would lead to success against the Colts' front line-- again, not exactly a novel thought in the leadup to the game. In retrospect, I had no way of knowing that Rex "Sex Cannon" Grossman (again, nickname courtesy of</FONT> <A HREF="http://kissmesuzy.blogspot.com/" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://kissmesuzy.blogspot.com/"><U>kissingsuzykolber.com</U></A><FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Trebuchet MS" >) would, in effect, act as the Colts' 12th man on the field. </FONT></div> <bR> <div> Well, new season starting. In a <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#0000BF" FACE="Trebuchet MS" ><A HREF="http://www.dkosopedia.com/wiki/Friedman_Unit" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.dkosopedia.com/wiki/Friedman_"><U>Friedman Unit</U></A></FONT> or so, we'll know if I have my winning groove back...</div> <bR> <div> It's almost time. No, not almost time for the opening kickoff of the season, but almost time for the extravagant pregame show featuring, more often than not, Jon Bon Jovi. This year-- Kelly Clarkson? Faith Hill? (Hee, those names were almost Kelly  larkson and Fait    ill.) At least Mellencamp will be on later, that's a little more organic to Indianapolis.</div> <bR> <div> <B>WEEK ONE</B></div> <div> NO at IND (-6). I am still in the throes of Saints fever, just from having been at the Superdome for their huge playoff win last January. Why go against it now? Plus, I found some <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#0000BF" FACE="Trebuchet MS" ><A HREF="http://www.abita.com/" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.abita.com/"><U>Abita Amber</U></A></FONT> in the local liquor store this week-- that's an omen! <B>NO + 6</B>.</div> </td> </tr></table></body>