2006 Oscars

<body topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 marginheight=0 marginwidth=0> <table cellpadding=0 cellspacing=0 border=0><tr> <td valign="top" colspan=2 height=90 BGCOLOR="#006699" TEXT="#080000" bgproperties="fixed" background="002285a1erlcgo.gif"> <div> <FONT SIZE="5" COLOR="#FFCC66" FACE="Arial" ><B>www.chapmansfriend.com</B></FONT><B>     |     </B><A HREF="default.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="www.chapmansfriend.com"><U><B>home</B></U></A></div> <div>                                                   </div> <div> </div> </td> </tr><tr> <td valign="top" width=210 BGCOLOR="#FFCC66" TEXT="#080000" background="001d2c00dkelyh.gif"> <div> <A HREF="id5.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Movies"><U>Movies</U></A></div> </td> <td valign="top" height=390 BGCOLOR="#FFFFFF" TEXT="#080000"> <div> <I>2006 Oscars</I></div> <div> <B>2006 Oscars</B></div> <div> <B>March 5:</B></div> <div> So it's 2 AM the night before the Oscars and I haven't seen a single movie from last year (OK, OK, I did see <I>Cinderella Man </I>last night so I could at least say I'd seen <I>one</I>, but really, doesn't seeing just one sound stranger than not having seen any?), and I haven't given much thought at all to who's going to win. Is this a bad time to make my selections? Of course not... In fact, from what I understand, <I>this is how Anna Paquin fills out her ballot each year too! </I>Heh :)</div> <div> <B>ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:</B></div> <div> <I>Crash</I></div> <div> <I>Good Night, and Good Luck</I></div> <div> <I>Match Point</I></div> <div> <I>The Squid and the Whale</I></div> <div> <I>Syriana</I></div> <div> I wonder if this won't be the category where they give George Clooney his Oscar, but I will instead go with <I><B>Crash</B></I>.</div> <div> <B>ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:</B></div> <div> <I>Brokeback Mountain</I></div> <div> <I>Capote</I></div> <div> <I>The Constant Gardener</I></div> <div> <I>A History of Violence</I></div> <div> <I>Munich</I></div> <div> <I><B>Brokeback Mountain</B></I>. Nuff said, pardner :)</div> <div> <B>SUPPORTING ACTRESS:</B></div> <div> Amy Adams, <I>Junebug</I></div> <div> Catherine Keener, <I>Capote</I></div> <div> Frances McDormand, <I>North Country</I></div> <div> Rachel Weisz, <I>The Constant Gardener</I></div> <div> Michelle Williams, <I>Brokeback Mountain</I></div> <div> Though this is traditionally Oscar's wackiest and least predictable category, it seems to come down to Catherine Keener and Rachel Weisz, if the buzz is correct. I will go with <B>Catherine Keener</B>. Since I haven't seen <I>Capote</I>, I will say that it's really for her work in <I>Your Friends and Neighbors </I>:)</div> <div> <B>SUPPORTING ACTOR:</B></div> <div> George Clooney, <I>Syriana</I></div> <div> Matt Dillon, <I>Crash</I></div> <div> Paul Giamatti, <I>Cinderella Man</I></div> <div> Jake Gyllenhaal, <I>Brokeback Mountain</I></div> <div> William Hurt, <I>A History of Violence</I></div> <div> It's possible that Paul Giamatti will win here as a "statement" by the Academy that they screwed up by not nominating him for <I>Sideways</I> last year. This, however, will probably be the category where <B>George Clooney</B>, Mr. Golden Boy, gets the Oscar. Since I haven't seen <I>Syriana</I>, I will say that it's really for his work in <I>E/R</I>. No, not <I><B>that</B></I><I> ER, </I><I><B>this </B></I><FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#0000BF" FACE="Eurostile" ><A HREF="http://epguides.com/ER_1984/" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://epguides.com/ER_1984/"><U><I>E/R.</I></U></A><I> </I></FONT></div> <div> <B>BEST ACTRESS:</B></div> <div> Judi Dench, <I>Mrs. Henderson Presents</I></div> <div> Felicity Huffman, <I>Transamerica</I></div> <div> Keira Knightley, <I>Pride & Prejudice</I></div> <div> Charlize Theron, <I>North Country</I></div> <div> Reese Witherspoon, <I>Walk the Line</I></div> <div> Judi Dench and Charlize Theron have their Oscars (really, 5 years ago, would you have guessed that you'd ever be able to write that line?), and Keira Knightley is an up and coming starlet who will get other chances. This gives us two nominees which have, in the past, been well-honored. Felicity Huffman is nominated for playing the "dramatic physical transformation" bit, <I>a la </I>Ms. Theron, Nicole Kidman, ect. Reese Witherspoon is nominated for playing the "hot Hollywood babe plays working-class and/or Southern girl" bit (Sally Field in <I>Norma Rae</I>, Jodie Foster in <I>The Accused</I>, ect.). If Reese Witherspoon played the transsexual instead of Ms. Huffman, then it'd be no contest, but even without that, I will pick <B>Reese Witherspoon</B>. <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#080000" FACE="Eurostile" >Since I haven't seen <I>Walk the Line</I>, I will say that it's really for her work in <I>Cruel Intentions</I>. (Actually, if they wanted to make this compensation for no <I>Election </I>nomination, that'd be fine with me.)</FONT></div> <div> <B>BEST ACTOR:</B></div> <div> Philip Seymour Hoffman, <I>Capote</I></div> <div> Terrence Howard, <I>Hustle & Flow</I></div> <div> Heath Ledger, <I>Brokeback Mountain</I></div> <div> Joaquin Phoenix, <I>Walk the Line</I></div> <div> David Straithairn, <I>Good Night, and Good Luck</I></div> <div> I suppose PSH is our favorite, but one could make a case for anybody winning. In particular I think Terrence Howard could be a long-shot pick. If <I>Brokeback </I>starts sweeping, Heath Ledger might take it. But three of the nominees are playing actual people (famous people, I mean), and that has often been an advantage. Joaquin Phoenix is, I think, out, because voters might remember how downright creepy he was in <I>Gladiator </I>(or was that just me?). David Straithairn is a longtime favorite character actor of mine, not only because of the great work he's done in John Sayles' movies (<I>Matewan, Eight Men Out, ect.)</I>, but because I identified with him in his role as Moss Goodman and his desperate crush on <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#0000BF" FACE="Eurostile" ><A HREF="http://epguides.com/DaysandNightsofMollyDodd/" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://epguides.com/DaysandNightsofMolly"><U><I>Molly Dodd</I></U></A><I> </I></FONT><FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Eurostile" >back in the day. But no, I will pick <B>Phillip Seymour Hoffman</B>. He has also been wonderful in a bunch of character roles, but s</FONT>ince I haven't seen <I>Capote</I>, I will say that it's really for his work in <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#0000BF" FACE="Eurostile" ><A HREF="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0110684/" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0110684/"><U><I>Nobody's Fool,</I></U></A></FONT><I> </I>one of my favorite underappreciated movies, where he played the bumbling cop.</div> <div> <B>BEST DIRECTOR:</B></div> <div> George Clooney, <I>Good Night, and Good Luck</I></div> <div> Paul Haggis, <I>Crash</I></div> <div> Ang Lee, <I>Brokeback Mountain</I></div> <div> Bennett Miller, <I>Capote</I></div> <div> Steven Spielberg, <I>Munich</I></div> <div> Let me digress for a second. I originally had the idea to list, along with each nominee, his or her previous award-worthy work (because I hadn't seen any of the current movies). For example, Ang Lee, <I>The Ice Storm</I>. For Felicity Huffman, <I>Sports Night</I>. For Spielberg, I was going to list, "<I>1941</I>... or maybe that <I>Hook </I>movie." Heh...</div> <div> Every year the best director Oscar goes to the DGA winner, and also to the director of the best picture winner, except when it doesn't. Meaning: Every so often, there's a change-up. </div> <div> What the hell, I might as well get this out of the way now...</div> <div> <B>BEST PICTURE:</B></div> <div> <I>Brokeback Mountain</I></div> <div> <I>Capote</I></div> <div> <I>Crash</I></div> <div> <I>Good Night, and Good Luck</I></div> <div> <I>Munich</I></div> <div> I don't think that <I>Brokeback </I>is going to win, and it has nothing to do with the subject matter (not that there's <I>anything </I>wrong with that) or with fear of offending the red states (hey, do you know that Bush has more approval than disapproval now in only, like, three states? (Idaho, I think, Utah, and Wyoming? A little too late, but still encouraging). I think it won't win because it's been the front-runner for quite a while, and it's just a better "story" if another movie "closes" with a rush and wins. Besides, my usually-trusty Oscar predictors suggest that not getting an editing nomination and also <I>getting </I>a supporting actress nomination (ironic, that) diminish <I>Brokeback's </I>chances. Which movie does have an editing nomination? <I>Crash </I>and <I>Munich</I>. Of those two, which movie has a supporting actor nomination and <I>does not </I>have a supporting actress nomination? (Historically, Best Picture winners have had a nominee for best supporting actor, and are much less likely to win if they have a actress or supporting actress nominee. I don't make up the rules, ladies!) The answer? <I><B>Crash</B></I>. And through my circular logic, that's my prediction.</div> <div> Now back to the Best Director prediction, already in progress...</div> <div> With <I>Crash </I>winning, Paul Haggis should be the winner for director, right? Here's where the two main predictors collide, since Ang Lee won the DGA award. I think this will be one of those times when the awards get split (hey, didn't I say that last year, and Marty Scorcese is still waiting for his name to be called), and besides, Paul Haggis has his Oscar for writing <I>Million Dollar Baby</I> last year. So, <B>Ang Lee</B> to win. Since I haven't seen <I>Brokeback Mountain</I>, I will say that it's really for his work on <I>The Ice Storm</I>.</div> <div> I also predict that Jon Stewart will get great reviews as host, but that they will really be for his work in <I>Death To Smoochy</I>. (Please, please, may there be a taped piece put together by <I>The Daily Show </I>people to rival the "Skiff Boat Veterans For Veracity" sketch shown at the 2004 Emmys?)</div> <bR> </td> </tr></table></body>