Movies

2007 Oscars

Yes, cutting it close again... But it is, in fact, Hollywood's ultimate night. Which reminds me of the great saying of early 70's Cowboys running back/ stoner Duane Thomas, who said of the Super Bowl, "If it's the ultimate game, why do they play it again next year?"

Yes, Duane. Why, indeed?

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Babel

Letters From Iwo Jima

Little Miss Sunshine

Pan's Labyrinth

The Queen

I originally thought this would be the win for Little Miss Sunshine, but I'm now thinking that The Queen will win here.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Borat

Children of Men

The Departed

Little Children

Notes on a Scandal

There is always a built-in advantage here to being a Best Picture nominee, so by default that means The Departed.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine

Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children

Djimon Hounsou, Blood Diamond

Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls

Mark Wahlberg, The Departed

Jackie Earle Haley? Moocher from Diner? Huh. How times change... I originally thought Eddie Murphy would win, but I am now changing my mind to take Alan Arkin. Let's see-- Eddie Murphy, a live mike, and 2 billion people in the audience-- What Could Possibly Go Wrong??? If he does win, though, even odds on a Norbit reference. 5-1 odds that he does that goofy laugh from Beverly Hills Cop.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Adriana Barraza, Babel

Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal

Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine

Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls

Rinko Kikuchi, Babel

The Academy loves to give this award to little girls (Anna Paquin, ect.), but it seems pretty well established that this is Jennifer Hudson's to lose. Thankfully, I'm blissfully unaware of the whole American Idol connection, though if she wins I'm sure I will be told. And Told. Over. And Over. Again.

ACTOR

Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond

Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson

Peter O' Toole, Venus

Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness

Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland

5 nominees for Best Actor, and not one nominated performance from a Best Picture nominated-film. Wonder if that's ever happened before? If it weren't so late in the evening I'd check... OK, I did check the last 5 years, and no, it hasn't happened during those years. Odd.

I'd think that Leo and Peter O' Toole would be the front-runners, for different reasons, but Forest Whitaker has so much "winner" buzz around hin that it's unbelievable. Who am I to argue with that?

ACTRESS

Penelope Cruz, Volver

Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal

Helen Mirren, The Queen

Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada

Kate Winslet, Little Children

Lesson #1-- break up with Tom Cruise, get an Oscar nomination. Katie Holmes should be on this list within 5 years...

Helen Mirren's win will be the biggest standing ovation of the night.

DIRECTOR

Clint Eastwood, Letters From Iwo Jima

Stephen Frears, The Queen

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Babel

Paul Greengrass, United 93

Martin Scorsese, The Departed

It is possible that Marty Scorsese will play the role of Charlie Brown, and the Academy will be Lucy pulling the football away at the last moment, but I think this will finally be his night...

PICTURE

Babel

The Departed

Letters From Iwo Jima

Little Miss Sunshine

The Queen

First of all, throw out Little Miss Sunshine-- no directorial nomination. The main factors predicting a Best Picture win are, in no particular order:

A Director's Guild win for its director,

A nomination in the Supporting Actor category,

No nominations for Best Actress or Supporting Actress (Hollywood is really a boys' club, still), and

A nomination in the Best Editing category

Only Babel and The Departed have the Editing nomination, and Babel has actress nomination, while The Departed has an actor nomination (Dirk Diggler himself). And Scorsese already has the DGA award. The Departed will win... let's see if Infernal Affairs gets a mention in the acceptance speeches...