2005 Season
2005 Season
Well, hello again sports fans. Time for another plunge into the strange world of professional football handicapping.
I hereby dedicate this season's picks to the memory of a true giant of the betting world, Hunter S. Thompson :)
But first... let's wrap up last season. After losing both my picks on the Super Bowl (I took the Patriots -7, and the "over" on New England's rushing yardage... missing by 4 points and 10 yards, respectively), I ended up at 59-53, or 52.68%. Just slightly better than the magic 52.4%, so I will claim a small victory for last season. But I will aim for much more this season...
FEBRUARY 5:
Hey, isn't this the day they play the Super Bowl? Why haven't I heard anything about this in the papers or on ESPN? Strange...
First, unfinished business from a few weeks ago... Yep, I went big against the Bears and came up a winner. Odd since I seemed to be more optimistic about the Bears during the season, but maybe the beginnings of comparisions to the '85 team caused a backlash.
Heard on sportstalk shows, just before Grossman took back the starting job: "This team will never go anywhere in the playoffs with Kyle Orton as quarterback!!!!" Hee. I wouldn't blame him if he had a big laugh over how things turned out... (W, 10x)
Record: 10-0, 53-47 for season.
Super Bowl:
I'm going to take the year off from peevishly calling the game the "NFL Chapmpionship Game", not because it's not true, but because neither the Seahawks nor the Steelers have ever played for the title in anything but the Super Bowl. But if the Steelers win and they are called the "first 5-time Super Bowl-winning franchise", conveniently putting them historically ahead of those poor teams who won it all prior to the Rozelle era, I reserve the right to start again.
SEA vs. PIT (-3.5). Wait. How did that happen? The Seahawks were the #1 seed through the playoffs, rolled up convincing wins in each game, and they're the underdogs to a wild-card team? Wha?
I guess I can't get past that anomaly. It just seems odd that the Steelers are suddenly moderate favorites. If anything, this looks like a pick 'em game to me, with a slight edge to the Seahawks.
The matchups are a bit kinder to the Steelers than I would have guessed. The running games are virtually equal, with Seattle's #3 in the league stats (measured by yards per game) up against Pittsburgh's #3 defense, and the Steelers' #5 offense against the Seahawks' #5 defense. But the statistics would suggest that there's an opportunity for the Steelers to exploit the Seahawks' secondary-- Pittsburgh's #1 yards per pass attempt (again, how'd that happen?) against Seattle's #17 pass defense. (Seattle's passing offense vs Pittsburgh's pass defense, BTW? #6 vs. #5.) However, I have a hunch. It seems like the Steelers like to use trick passing plays, especially with Randle El. I think this may backfire on them. I remember an old Bill James comment on how the White Sox ran themselves out of innings by being too aggressive on the basepaths against the Orioles in the '83 playoffs, and he said something like "You try to take the extra base against the Mariners all season, and it wins you ballgames. Then you try to take the extra base against the Orioles, and it wins them ballgames." His point was that you can get away with more things against mediocre teams, but that better teams will find a way to take advantage of foolhardy aggressiveness.
So I'm not making this an official prediction, but I would not be surprised if a "gadget" play by the Steelers turned into Seahawks points.
I don't see any reason not to take Seattle and the points. And I can make this pick and still be assured of a winning season (52.4%)! SEA + 3.5.
JANUARY 22:
I'm taking the week off after wrapping up a winning season... But I will have one last pick for the Super Bowl...
Divisional Round:
RESULTS from Wild Card Round: The Panthers crushed the Giants, paying off on my major pick of the week (W4X), but the Steelers and Bengals were slightly too prolific with the scoring (L)...
Record: 4-1, 43-47 for season.
JANUARY 15:
Once again, I'm going to focus on on one prime pick, and this time, let's go for the whole thing. One 10x bet getes me even for the season. In the wise words of Mr. Mickey Rourke, Sometimes you gotta roll the potato.
CAR at CHI (-3.5). (Latest tradesports.com odds-- don't know what they were in USA Today.) I think the time has run out on the Bears for this season... so without further ado, CAR + 3.5 , 10X.
Let's see where this leaves me at the end of the day...
Wild Card Round:
RESULTS from Week Seventeen: ...Aaaannddd the regular season stumbles to a close.
The Bears, Falcons, Seahawks, and Bills all lost, despite my elaborate reasonings as to why they should win (L, L, L, L). But yes, I can pick 'em when it comes to the two worst teams in the league... hello, 49ers! (W).
Record: 1-4, 39-46 for season.
JANUARY 8:
The rules change somewhat for the playoffs. I no longer have a set quota of 5 games to pick (obviously), and I don't have to pick each game. I am no longer restricted to just the point spread, as I can go into over/under territory. And most importantly, I can multiply my wagers on a specific game...
I picked neither of the Saturday games. Washington and Tampa Bay are two teams neither good enough to be predictable nor bad enough to be predictable, and while I figured the Patriots would win, I didn't feel comfortable on the margin. So...
CAR at NYG (-3). I feel good about picking the Panthers to win outright. I know that Barber is hot for the Giants, but Manning has been uneven at best, and the Panthers seem to be rolling. In fact, I feel I will take CAR + 3, 4X.
PIT (-3) at CIN. I think the Steelers will probably win here, but what's more interesting is the over/under of 43.5. I lust don't see this as being a high-scoring game, with both teams getting to 20. Either the Steelers' defense will shut down the Benals, or the ball-hawking Bengals' secondary will make life miserable for Roethlisberger. This ain't exactly UT vs. USC when it comes to offenses. So, I take the UNDER 43.5 line. But just one time...
Week Seventeen:
RESULTS from Week Sixteen: Not a good time for another losing week...
The Cardinals-- the Arizona Cardinals!!-- were my only winner (W). The Chargers? Lost. Vikings? Lost. (L, L) The Colts were a little flatter than I expected, so (L).
Then there was the Packers game... Getting 6 and a half points, the Packers lost by... 7. Now, it would be easy to blame this on that ridiculous interception returned for a TD that Favre threw deep in his own territory. No. This is the easy way out. At this point in his career, God love him, you expect a play like that at some time in the game from Favre. It's been factored in! But... Ryan Longwell. Yes, there is the true cause of my defeat. Two chip-shot or nearly chip-shot field goals missed... Arrrgghhh :) (L)
Record: 1-4, 38-42 for season.
DECEMBER 31:
Luckily, this week I was able to pick games I felt comfortable with-- I think all of these teams have good shots at winning, and 4 of them are underdogs. Given my record this season, though, this may not be a good sign...
CAR (-4) at ATL. After betting against Vick all season, I will now do a Constanza (i.e., the opposite) and take the Falcons, figuring they will want to end their season on a high note. ATL + 4.
SEA at GB (-3.5). Yes, the Seahawks will be coasting into the playoffs, but even discounting that, they are a vastly superior team, and there's the return of Holmgren to Green Bay. SEA + 3.5.
CHI at MIN (-4). The Vikings favored? Really? The homefield advantage is about 3.5 or 4 points itself, so that would mean that otherwise, the two teams are equal? The Bears are already in, but they will still have to fine-tune the offense with Grossman. And with the Bears' defense, the Vikes may have trouble scoring. (Insert Love Cruise jike here.) CHI + 4.
BUF (-1) at NYJ. The Bills are woeful. The Jets are stupendously woeful. Give the point! BUF -1.
HOU (-1.5) at SF. Two horrible teams, but I just can't buy the Texans being "favored". SF + 1.5.
Week Sixteen:
RESULTS from Week Fifteen: Another winning week, but maybe too little, too late. The Panthers and Bengals covered easily (W,W), and the 49ers kept it close enough (W). On the other hand, the Cardinals disappointed (why why, why would you ever have enough faith in the Cardinals to be disappointed?), and the Raiders blew it late (L, L).
Record: 3-2, 37-38 for season.
DECEMBER 24:
It's Christmas again, December is here. Hasn't it been a wonderful year? (From Christmastime, Aimee and Michael)
SD (-1) at KC. I think the Chargers will win outright, so... give the lousy point. SD -1.
PHI at AZ (-1). After what I said earlier, this may seem odd, but... the Cards should win, so... give the lousy point! And If they plow this one, a pox upon the Bidwell empire. AZ -1.
IND at SEA (-9.5). Several considerations here. The Colts may not be playing all their starters for very long. And of course there was a tragedy in the Dungy family this week. Nevertheless... I think that even with Manning, ect. only playing part-time, there's enough depth on the Colts to be competitive. And I wouldn't be surprised if the team came together in the aftermath of the Dungy tragedy... Things like this have happened before (didn't the Saints win their opener this year, just after the hurricane?) Plus, how often do you get a chance to take the Colts and the points? IND + 9.5.
CHI (-6.5) at GB. After betting the Bears all season, and seeing the Packers suffer through a total loss season, I am running a switcheroo this week. Last week's Packers' performance was so bad that there may be no place to go but up. And the bears going into Lambeau... just a hunch. GB + 6.5.
MIN at BAL (-3). The Ravens aren't that good. MIN + 3.
Week Fifteen:
RESULTS from Week Fourteen: Washington won outright (W), and the Dolphins and Ravens both played the game close (W, W). The Giants, though, squeaked out a win instead of covering (L), and 16 points wasn't enough to make up for the Niners' suckitude (L).
Record: 3-2, 34-36 for season. I need better than 3-2 weeks from here on in, but it's a start...
DECEMBER 18:
Strange games this week. No games, really, where I sense much of an upset, so where do we go? Let's start out with...
AZ (-1) at HOU. I think the Cardinals will win (or rather, the Texans will find a way to lose), so let's give the point. AZ -1.
SF at JAX (-15.5). Ted Baxter rule, though I am wary of placing my trust on the Niners. SF + 15.5.
CAR (-9) at NO. Well, sort of at New Orleans... Baton Rouge, really. No matter, I doubt the Saints will be in this game. CAR -9.
CIN (-8) at DET. Hey, it's the Lions. CIN -8.
CLE at OAK (-3). Not really confident about this one (like I'm confident about any of them!), but I have to try and take one home favorite. Wish I had decided to take the Giants in the Saturday game instead... OAK -3.
Week Fourteen:
RESULTS from Week Thirteen: The Chiefs and Bears covered me (W, W), but the Titans were utterly blown out by the Colts (L), and the new coach in Detroit made less difference than I'd hoped (L). That left it up to the Cardinals-Niners game, which I (i.e., the 49ers), had won until the Niners decided it would be unsporting to tackle Anquin Boldin as he scrambled for a TD (L).
Record: 2-3, 31-34 for season.
DECEMBER 11:
WAS at AZ (-4). I actually think Washington will win here, so WAS + 4. The rest of the games are just trying to play the point spread angle...
NYG (-9) at PHI. Giving 9 points to the home team sounds like a desperate situation, but the Eagles seem to be in an even more desperate situation. NYG -9.
The rest of the games? Ted Baxter principle, because, at this stage, why not, really??
SF at SEA (-16). SF + 16.
MIA at SD (-13.5). MIA + 13.5.
BAL at DEN (-14.5). BAL + 14.5.
Back with the news on my losses next week!
Week Thirteen:
RESULTS from Week Twelve: I am going backwards this season. Normally I start out slowly and finish strong, but my high-water mark this season was only a few weeks into the schedule.
This week, I started out with the already-covered double defeat on Thanksgiving... and only picked up one win on Sunday, the suddenly-and-surprisingly dependable Bears (W). The Packers and Saints both stunk, so I shan't be relying on either of them soon (L, L).
Record: 1-4, 29-31 for season.
DECEMBER 4:
DEN (-1) at KC. Apparently the Broncos have not won in Kansas City since the Chester Arthur Administration. KC + 1.
GB at CHI (-7). I just want to know what crazy, koo-koo world I am livin' in when I give 7 points to Brett Favre and the Packers against the Bears, when Favre has not lost in Chicago since the William Howard Taft Administration, and I still feel good about it. CHI - 7.
TEN at IND (-16). Ted Baxter rule. TEN + 16.
MIN (-2.5) at DET. In baseball, when a manager is fired, usually the team takes off on a mini-run immediately afterward, if only because of the new atmosphere. This is the only possible justification I can have for taking the Lions, in the wake of the Mariucci firing. DET + 2.5.
AZ (-3) at SF. The Cardinals are missing their most effective offensive weapon this week, so that's got to hurt them. The sad thing is? It's their kicker. SF + 3.
Week Twelve:
RESULTS from Week Eleven: The Bengals gave it a nice shot, but... no (L). And the Jets were just woeful (L). Otherwise, a modestly positive week-- my first winning week in quite some time. The Titans and Saints came back late to get close (W, W), and Tommy Maddox worked his predictable magic, allowing the Ravens to win (W).
Record: 3-2, 28-27 for season.
NOVEMBER 27:
I am not at all thankful for having taken the Thanksgiving Day games. I know that I like to rag on Vick and the Falcons, but they are a better team than the Lions, and I was hoping that the Thanksgiving magic would strike (as it so often does) to put Detroit up. This year, not so much (L). The Cowboys' game looked better, but an untimely early interception returned for a TD ended up being too big (L).
And, as punishment for taking two iffy games already, I now have six games today that I feel much more strongly about than either of the Thursday games, only I am bound by my rules to only pick three...
CHI at TB (-3). I don't like Chris Simms' chances against that Bears defense, but I better not say that too loudly or Phil Simms will beat me up. CHI + 3.
GB at PHI (-4.5). Yes, it's a road underdog, and yes, the Pack looked bad last week, but maybe the Eagles are that trainwreck team I've been looking for all season. GB + 4.5.
NO at NYJ (-1). An uninspiring matchup of bad teams, but I think the Jets pull out of their funk sooner. NYJ + 1.
For the record, though they aren't official picks, I also like NE + 3, WAS + 3.5, and AZ + 3.5...
THANKSGIVING:
The Thanksgiving dilemma: to stay away from the Dallas and Detroit games, or to try and determine which factors outweigh each other... Do I take the home teams because they usually play well? How does the short week affect the visitors, who aren't used to it? How badly do the Lions suck this year? Are they wearing throwback uniforms????
ATL (-3) at DET
DEN (-1.5) at DAL
I figure that almost never do both the Cowboys and Lions lose on Thanksgiving, so maybe the worst I can come out is 1-1. Plus, any time I get to pick against Vick I take it. Therefore... DET +3, and DAL + 1.5.
Week Eleven:
RESULTS from Week Ten: Another disappointing week. The Chiefs never really showed up against the Bills, and the Vikings came up with one of thos all-time fluke games to beat the Giants (L, L). But what really got me was that Washington defender lining up offsides on an extra point try, thereby putting the ball at the one-yard line and allowing Chucky Gruden the option to go for a two-point conversion and the lead rather than a PAT and a tie. Nobody knows what would have happened in a putative overtime, but that play doomed me even before OT (L). At least I didn't have any action on the Eagles' Monday night game, when Donovan McNabb decided to try and prove T.O. right by throwing a horribly timed interception with the clock running out [snerk].
On the other hand, the sage advice from Ted Baxter worked out for both the 49ers and the Texans. Thank you, Ted! (W, W)
Record: 2-3, 25-25 for season. Back to .500. I've only had 3 winning weeks this season...
NOVEMBER 20:
IND (-5) at CIN. Despite the Bengals being the trendy pick to stop the Colts' undefeated season (trendy picks never pan out), I'll take the Bengals at home, with the bye effect working in their favor. CIN + 5.
JAX (-4) at TEN. Since we are returning to reliance on the bye effect, gimme the Titans too. TEN + 4.
NO at NE (-9.5). And the Saints, while I'm at it. The Patriots haven't exactly been steady picks this season either... NO + 9.5.
NYJ at DEN (-13). The Baxter Principle worked last week, so NYJ + 13.
PIT (-3.5) at BAL. The Ravens are putrid, but here we have the Tommy Maddox effect in play, meaning that they are automatically in the game. To paraphrase Norman "The Man" Chad from a few seasons ago, there are 6 billion people on the planet Earth. And Tommy Maddox can't find any of them open. BAL + 3.5.
Week Ten:
RESULTS from Week Nine: The Panthers won easily (no doubt due to the awesome way their cheerleaders support the team!), and the Jets scored an oh-by-the-way late TD to squeeze into the margin of the spread (W, W). But... Harrington ineptitude trumped Viking ineptitude (L), I must stop believing in the infallibility of the Patriots (L), and that Scared Straight program to wean me off the Cardinals doesn't sound so bad either (L).
Record: 2-3, 23-22 for season. I am now 7-13 over the last month. I'm doing worse (35%) than George Bush (36%)!!
NOVEMBER 13:
KC at BUF (-3). The home field advantage is usually thought to be about 3 or 3 and a half points, so what the Vegas oddsmakers are saying is that the 5-3 team and the 3-5 team are actually... about equal? I think this is an overreaction to Priest Holmes being out for the season, but Larry Johnson seems to be ready to step in. KC + 3.
WAS (-1) at TB. Washington seems the smarter pick here, and as has been my practice this season, if I think they will win I might as well give the point. WAS -1.
MIN at NYG (-9.5). I don't care about last week. The Vikings really are that bad. NYG - 9.5.
SF at CHI (-13).
HOU at IND (-17.5). I am picking these two games according to the Ted Baxter Principle. In a classic Mary Tyler Moore Show episode that I must reference at least once a year, Ted revealed his secret to successfully picking football games: Take the really big underdogs, the ones with at least a 12 point spread. His theory? Even a bad team is made up of players good enough to play closer than that. This was good enough to make him and Lou Grant a bunch of money during the season, even though Lou steamed about the fact that he was letting Ted, for God's sake, make the decisions, and then Lou lost everything by foolishly betting the Vikings in the Super Bowl. But I digress...
I am impressed with the potential of the Iowa-native, Bush-hatin' Kyle Orton, but at this point I don't know if he can reliably lead the Bears' offense to all that many scores. So, SF + 13. And, while the Colts ought to cream the Texans, I suspect the combination of a letdown from the big Monday night win, and the voodoo powers of the '72 Dolphins, who root churlishly for the last undefeated team to get beaten each season so they can break open their champagne and hang onto their past glories... will keep the game close. HOU + 17.5.
It all started in a 5,000 watt radio station in Fresno, California...
Week Nine:
RESULTS from Week Eight: Another week of sliding slowly toward .500. Sigh...
The Bears won outright (W), and the Packers made a close one of it (W), but otherwise not a good week. The Browns lost to the Texans! (L) Although that one was at least close, with the Texans squeaking out a 3 point win. Neither the Cardinals nor the Titans got anywhere close (L, L).
Record: 2-3, 21-19 for season.
NOVEMBER 6:
CAR (-1) at TB. I have a hunch the Panthers will win, so might as well give the measly point. CAR -1.
SD (-6) at NYJ. The Chargers ought to win, but West Coast teams often fall flat when confronted with 1PM EST start times. And The Jets, though putrid, do have the bye effect working for them. Not truly comfortable with this one, but NYJ + 6.
SEA (-4) at AZ. Someday I'm going to learn to stop picking the Cardinals. Maybe some kind of Scared Straight program. AZ + 4.
DET at MIN (Pick 'em). Wow. What a bad matchup. The imploding Vikings and a Joey Harrington-led Lions. When in doubt, pick against the team treading water and whose ship is sinking fast. Hee. Get it? DET.
NOVEMBER 7:
IND (-4) at NE. I know the Colts are undefeated and it kind of seems like their year, but it still doesn't make sense that they would be favored on the road against the Patriots, who it seems haven't lost a big spotlight game since the Steve Grogan years. NE + 4.
Week Eight
OCTOBER 30:
All right, maybe the Bengals aren't yet fully for real (L), and there was my inexplicable selection of the Jets on Monday night which didn't quite work out (L). Besides those, and the aforementioned Dolphins loss, last week was a revival of sorts. The Bears came through and won, though it was only against the offensively-challenged Ravens (W). And while personally I would have preferred to see the Packers cruise right over the hapless Vikings (Heh!), from a bettor's perspective, the big second-half comeback was just what I needed (W).
Record: 2-3, 19-16 for season.
Consider the first two picks the World's Series aftermath...
CHI at DET (-3). In a normal world, the Lions' starting Jeff Garcia would be reason enough to make them underdogs. Strangely, they are favored! Must take advantage of this... CHI + 3.
CLE at HOU (-2). I know they are at home, but shouldn't it take something like playing the 49ers or the Vikings to warrant the Texans' being favored? Though I do think they will outscore the Astros Series production... CLE + 2.
OAK (-1.5) at TEN. I almost never pay attention to stats like this, but the Raiders are 2-18 in their last 20 road games. The Titans are no great shakes this season, but TEN + 1.5.
No good choices to fill out my schedule this week. Since I have to...
GB at CIN (-9). Though I think the Packers' season is doomed, let's say they will get close against the Bengals. GB + 9.
AZ at DAL (-9). Nine is my lucky number, and nine is the number of interceptions Drew Bledsoe could throw if he is off, so maybe AZ + 9 is a safe selection.
And then there's tonight's World's Series game... You know, if the Astros don't win this one, they are really in trouble! Heh...
Week Seven
OCTOBER 21:
A special early pick, due to the change in the start time for the Dolphins' game...
KC at MIA (-1.5) (as listed by tradesports.com, as of Thursday night) This is being played on Friday night instead of Sunday afternoon because of Hurricane Wilma. Moving the game up two days is going to affect both teams' routines, but the Chiefs have the added disadvantage of travel. I'd say that a point and a half is a reasonable price to pay. MIA -1.5.
The rest of my picks, and the summing-up from last week, will come before Sunday...
OCTOBER 23:
RESULTS from Week Six: OK, maybe two good weeks in a row encouraged some reckless selections this week...
The Giants barely covered (W), but then... The Lions lost (L). The Browns lost (L). The Dolphins and Raiders lost. Badly (L, L). Blech.
Record: 1-4, 17-13 for season. Look at it this way, I'm still 10-5 over the last three weeks...
Already down 0-1 this week as the result of talking the Dolphins in the moved-up game (Never Again!) (L), so...
PIT at CIN (Pick 'em). Dare I believe in the Mighty Bengals of Cincinnati? CIN. (Gulp...)
BAL at CHI (-1). I belittled the Ravens last week, and they burned me. I still think they deserve it, so CHI -1. But if I lose this one, all hail Anthony Wright.
GB (-1.5) at MIN. Wow. Each season, one team emerges as a true train-wreck, like Joey or the Harriet Miers nomination. Either the Packers or the Vikings could be that team, and the loser here could end up getting picked against all season. Normally, I'd think that the Vikings "Love Cruise" problems would doom them, but at least for this game, remember that Favre does not play well in the HumpDome. With trepidation, MIN -1.5. In the long run, though, Mike Tice still should be checking monster.com.
NYJ at ATL (-7). Monday night. Just a weird hunch, not backed up by any facts, but NYJ +7.
Week Six
RESULTS from Week Five: The bad news? Compared to Week Four, I underperformed by 20%.
The good news? That means that I went 4-1 instead of 5-0. Heh.
Only the Dolphins' game didn't go as I guessed, as they lost by 6 (I thought they might win) (L). Otherwise, the Steelers, Patriots, and Lions all won as I figured (W, W, W), and the 'Skins put on a last-minute drive to get as close to the Broncos as I thought they might, leading to a (W).
Record: 4-1, 16-9 for season.
OCTOBER 16:
Now for certain I don't want a letdown week...
CAR at DET (-1). In the long run, making a habit of picking the Lions is a dreadful strategy, but let's see if I can get away with it two weeks in a row. DET -1.
CLE at BAL (-6). The Ravens are favored by 6. I'm not certain that the Ravens' offense can score 6 points, and besides, the Browns are still basking in the bye effect. I hate to take bad teams playing on the road, but... CLE +6.
MIA at TB (-4.5). I am going to keep taking the Dolphins until I get it right. Either that, or for one more week. MIA + 4.5.
NYG at DAL (-3.5). I am all about road dogs this week, aren't I? NYG + 3.5.
SD at OAK (-2). Al Davis is gonna go all Steinbrenner if the Raiders keep losing, so OAK + 2.
Almost picked? Saints + 5.5 against the Falcons. If things go badly in my 5 official picks and the Saints do end up winning, I'll scream...
Week Five
RESULTS from Week Four: A nearly perfect football weekend.
Won with both of my fantasy teams (one of them is 4-0, thank you very much),Went a very healthy 11-3 in picking straight-up winners, keeping me in the lead pack in my competition, and...
5-0 in point spread picks!
The Saints, Giants, and Ravens all covered (W, W, W), and miraculously, the Texans and Lions stayed close (W, W). The rare and elusive 5-0 week... Satisfaction...
Record: 5-0, 12-8 for season.
OCTOBER 9:
Now let's guard against a letdown week...
MIA at BUF (-3). Coming off the bye week, the Dolphins look good, and the Bills have been underwhelming so far. MIA +3.
NE at ATL (-3). I don't see the Patriots losing two weeks in a row. Do you see the Patriots losing two weeks in a row? NE + 3.
BAL at DET (-1). Picking the Lions is always risky, but the Ravens are flat offensively... Why not? DET - 1.
PIT at SD (-3) What's with all the 3-point spreads this week, Mr. Oddsmakers? Another bye week effect. PIT + 3.
WAS at DEN (-7) And one last pick solely on the bye effect. The 'Skins are 3-0 and don't seem to be impressive enough to sport that record, but playing against Jake Plummer, with the always-present possibility of entering his Magical
World of Interceptions, maybe they can keep it close. WAS + 7.
Week Four
RESULTS from Week Three: The Dolphins won (W), and the Browns did a heckuvajob (heh heh heh) to stay close to the Colts (W). But... No, maybe the Bears aren't for real (L), and neither are the Bills (L). So the week rested upon the Cowboys, who blew a big lead against the Niners, came back and won, but of course not by enough (L).
Record: 2-3, 7-8 for season.
OCTOBER 2:
Last night? Dynamite Graham Parker show, but time is short and I can't get gimmicky with the song titles like last week...
BUF at NO (-1). The Saints' first game that can be reasonably called a "home" one, and favored by one point, it's as good as a pick 'em. NO -1.
DET at TB (-6.5). The Bye Week effect is starting to kick in, so though I think they might lose, I'll go with DET + 6.5.
HOU at CIN (-9.5). Same thing with the Texans (coming off the bye), plus I am still distrustful of believing in the power of the Mighty Bengals of Cincinnati. HOU + 9.5.
NYJ at BAL (-7). Starting for the New York Football Jets? Brooks Bollinger. In the wings? Vinny Testaverde. Oh, the horror. BAL -7.
STL at NYG (-3). Why take the Giants? Hey, Don't Ask Me Questions, it's just a hunch. (OK, I threw one song in here.) NYG -3.
Week Three
RESULTS from Week Two: Note to Self... Try not to make picks dependent upon Kerry Collins' and Kurt Warner's performance, as with last week's Raiders/ Cardinals Daily Double (L. L). However, the rest of the week's picks turned out swell. Are the Bears for real? Maybe not, but who knows for sure? (W). And the Seahawks and Titans also turned up winners (W, W).
Record: 3-2, 5-5 for season.
SEPTEMBER 25:
I have just returned from seeing Michael Penn in concert (perhaps an online review is in order soon), so I will attach one of his song titles to each pick this week... Yes, it's a stretch :)
CIN (-3) at CHI. Are the Bears for real? Maybe it's No Myth. CHI + 3.
DAL (-6.5) at SF. For the once-proud Niners, it's a Long Way Down (Look What The Cat Drug In). DAL -6.5 (taking a Drew Bledsoe-led Cowboys team and giving points on the road? I must be crazy.)
ATL at BUF (-3). Even Walter Reed would figure that the Bills' defense will shut down the Falcons... BUF - 3.
CAR (-3.5) at MIA. It's Out of My Hands that the Dolphins will win this one... MIA + 3.5.
CLE at IND (-13.5). Taking the Browns in this game, even though it's such a huge spread? You would think I had Seen The Doctor, it's such a Brave New World. (Two of them there!) But, CLE + 13.5.
Week Two
RESULTS from Week One: On the positive side, the Falcons did come up with a good game (W) and the Steelers rolled (W). The Redskins, on the other hand, did not grasp the concept of the FRIGGIN' END ZONE, and therefore won with 3 field goals, causing the Bears to cover (L). The Ravens had some of the same problems in looking woeful against the Colts (L).
That leaves the Jaguars-Seahawks game, which I did lose (L), but in my own defense, I picked the game assuming (as I read in a game preview) that there would be bad waether in Jacksonville as a result of Hurricane Ophelia. Therefore equalizing the teams and making an upset possible. Imagine my surprise when the storm completely missed the area...
RECORD: 2-3
SEPTEMBER 18:
My picking was made easier this week. With one exception, all my games are one-point spreads, where the same basic principle of "always pick the 'pick 'em' game" applies. Think about it-- if you believe the one-point underdog will win, then you should pick them. If you believe the one-point favorite will win, then the worst that should happen is that you get a "push". There is no "off" position on the genius switch...
DET (-1) at CHI. Yes, I know, these are the Bears, but y'know, these are also the Lions. Favored on the road? CHI + 1.
KC (-1) at OAK. The Raiders have the capability to put a lot of points on the board, and the last I checked, the Chiefs had the capability to allow lots of points. OAK + 1.
STL at AZ (-1). Despite momentary confusion on Kurt Warner's part as to who he's supposed to be throwing to, I see the Cardinals as marginally better. AZ - 1.
ATL at SEA (-1). Falcons due for a letdown. SEA - 1.
And, one game with a huge 3.5 point spread...
BAL at TEN (-3.5). The Ravens will have to prove to me that they can score. TEN - 3.5.
Week One
SEPTEMBER 11:
As usual, no friggin' clue as to how to pick the first week... as past history has proven. Actually, I like to claim that my first-week picks always suck, but checking the archives, I am 8-6-1 over the past 3 seasons in the first week...
PHI at ATL (Pick 'em). Let's start with this one. If you can't come down on one side or other of a pick 'em game, what's the use? I still believe that Mike Vick is dreadfully overrated, but a home crowd + Eagles dissention = Falcons win. ATL.
CHI at WAS (-5.5). Despite years of disliking the Bears, I am somewhat rooting for Kyle Orton to have some success, if only because he made no secret of his pro-Kerry leanings last year. But... it ain't gonna happen in his first start, the Roethlesberger Principle notwithstanding. WAS - 5.5.
IND (-3) at BAL. A good defensive team getting 3 points at home? Yes, please. BAL + 3.
TEN at PIT (-7). Speaking of Roethlesberger, let's say that he and the Steelers are ready to have a good game. PIT -7.
SEA at JAX (-3). Heavy rain in the forecast. Bad weather is an equalizer. A slim reed upon which to hang my pick, but it's Week One and I have very little to go on except "they were good last year, I guess they'll be good again..." SEA + 3.
