2002 Oscars

<body topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 marginheight=0 marginwidth=0> <table cellpadding=0 cellspacing=0 border=0><tr> <td valign="top" colspan=2 height=90 BGCOLOR="#006699" TEXT="#080000" bgproperties="fixed" background="002285a1erlcgo.gif"> <div> <FONT SIZE="5" COLOR="#FFCC66" FACE="Arial" ><B>www.chapmansfriend.com</B></FONT><B>     |     </B><A HREF="default.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="www.chapmansfriend.com"><U><B>home</B></U></A></div> <div>                                                   </div> <div> </div> </td> </tr><tr> <td valign="top" width=210 BGCOLOR="#FFCC66" TEXT="#080000" background="001d2c00dkelyh.gif"> <div> <A HREF="id5.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Movies"><U>Movies</U></A></div> </td> <td valign="top" height=390 BGCOLOR="#FFFFFF" TEXT="#080000"> <div> <I>2002 Oscars</I></div> <div> <IMG SRC="0f501010.gif" border=0 width="1" height="1" ALIGN="BOTTOM" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0"></div> <div> At this time of the year, I can only quote <I>The Odd Couple</I>'s Felix Unger and say...</div> <div> <IMG SRC="0f601010.gif" border=0 width="1" height="1" ALIGN="BOTTOM" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0"></div> <div> <B>"Oscar, Oscar, Oscar."</B></div> <div> <IMG SRC="0f701010.gif" border=0 width="1" height="1" ALIGN="BOTTOM" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0"></div> <div> Before making my Oscar predictions, I must confess that I saw only one movie this year (<I>Memento</I>), so I'm not basing my selections on any first-hand knowledge of the films or the performances. I rely on what others have said about the movies, what others see as the Oscar trends, and the background of the nominees and what they have done in the past.</div> <div> If you think that none of the members are using the same criteria to fill out their ballots, I have a feeling you are sadly mistaken.</div> <div> It's Showtime!</div> <bR> <div> First, the acting awards:</div> <bR> <div> <B>Best Supporting Actress:</B></div> <div> Jennifer Connelly, Helen Mirren, Maggie Smith, Marisa Tomei, Kate Winslet</div> <bR> <div> I think that being in the same movie will probably split the votes for Helen Mirren and Maggie Smith, and Marisa Tomei already has her Oscar. (One that some still believe she didn't win anyway.) So that leaves Kate Winslet and Jennifer Connelly. I think there might be some sentiment to vote for Winslet to give the star of the biggest money-making film ever some hardware; but others might think that having gotten that career boost is award enough. So my pick is <B>Jennifer Connelly</B>, no doubt helped by her brother's visibility as the host of ESPN's <I>Unscripted</I>.</div> <bR> <div> <B>Best Supporting Actor:</B></div> <div> Jim Broadbent, Ethan Hawke, Ben Kingsley, Ian McKellen, Jon Voight</div> <bR> <div> I think this category is clear-cut. At least one supporting award usually goes as a lifetime achievement award to a veteran actor who hasn't gotten an Oscar yet, so here I pick <B>Ian McKellen</B>, surely one of the world's finest actors and part of the cast of a blockbuster to boot. (Warning: this formula didn't work for Alec Guinness in <I>Star Wars</I>, but then he'd already won one.) As for the rest of the field, Ben Kingsley could be the recipient of the "lifetime achievement" sentiment, having put up Oscar-worthy after Oscar-worthy performances for years... except that they foolishly gave him an Oscar already for <I>Gandhi</I>, which I don't think was his finest work. And in addition to Jon Voight already having an award, nobody but nobody is going to win an Oscar when his name in the credits is followed by the words "... as Howard Cosell."</div> <bR> <div> <B>Best Actress:</B></div> <div> Halle Berry, Judi Dench, Nicole Kidman, Sissy Spacek, Renee Zellweger</div> <bR> <div> Knock out Judi Dench... she's already won. Knock out Halle Berry... her nomination is her award, and besides, didn't she run somebody over recently? That leaves three... I normally would eliminate Sissy Spacek as she has an award already, but in the Best Actress category there seems to be a tradition of voting a second Oscar to a past winner some years after her first win as recognition for her performance in a "smaller" film. Remember Sally Field and Jessica Lange? Still, I think it comes down to Nicole Kidman and Renee Zellweger. In the wake of the messy split with Tom Cruise, and combined with the fact that she has been underrated as an actress since <I>Dead Calm </I>and <I>To Die For</I>, I think the Oscar goes to <B>Nicole Kidman</B>. But I'm not entirely sure that Zellweger couldn't sneak in and win, and Sissy Spacek could win too.</div> <bR> <div> <B>Best Actor:</B></div> <div> Russell Crowe, Sean Penn, Will Smith, Denzel Washington, Tom Wilkinson</div> <bR> <div> This could be the toughest acting category to predict. From what I have seen in clips, Tom Wilkinson's performance was intelligent and restrained. And that wins the Oscar exactly how often? Will Smith finally has the nomination he should have had years ago for <I>Six Degrees of Separation</I>; to expect him to win his first time out is expecting too much. Sean Penn has never won, despite the fact he is judged one of his generation's best actors, and his playing the role of "somebody different" could be just the trick (check the mantles of Dustin Hoffman, Cliff Robertson, Daniel Day-Lewis, <I>et al</I>). But I agree with the feeling that it will come down to Russell Crowe and Denzel Washington. The question is, does the Academy wish to put the Australian bad boy in the record books with Spencer Tracy and Tom Hanks as winners of consecutive Best Actor statues? Maybe not. On the other hand, <B>Denzel Washington </B>has a good body of work going all the way back to TV's <I>St. Elsewhere</I>, seems to be well liked, and while he has won an Oscar, it was over a dozen years ago. So I'll pick him-- but I'm wary of Aimee Mann's brother-in-law (Mr. Penn) pulling an upset.</div> <bR> <div> To pick the other top awards, I first have to go over the Best Picture category, since that will determine my choices in the director and screenplay categories.</div> <bR> <div> <B>Best Picture:</B></div> <div> <I>A Beautiful Mind</I>, <I>Gosford Park</I>, <I>In The Bedroom</I>, <I>The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring</I>, and <I>Moulin Rouge</I></div> <bR> <div> I used to have a pretty accurate formula for predicting the Best Picture winner. It involved determining in which categories each film was nominated, and measuring them by their historical accuracy in predicting the eventual winner. For example, when I drew up the system, the last 21 winners included 14 nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay, and 7 nominated for Best Original Screenplay... so if a Best Picture nominee was nominated in one category, it got a certain number of points, and when you added up all the points, it came up with a most-likely winner. This worked fine until the year the formula suggested that <I>Titanic </I>was the least-likely picture to win, and in subsequent years the predictions weren't much better.</div> <div> But I still think the basic foundation of the system is sound. Essentially, it was good if there were nominees in actor categories, bad if there were nominees in actress categories (no chick flicks as Best Picture... unless someone like Jack Nicholson is a Supporting Actor nominee). It's better to have an adapted screenplay than an original screenplay. It should be nominated in cinematography and/or editing, but not costumes (in recent years, Oscar has shunned historical epics... well, until <I>Titanic </I>and <I>Gladiator</I>). In turn, the Best Picture winner almost always carries over to Best Director and Best Screenplay.</div> <div> So look at this year's nominees, and what do we see? No director nominations at all for <I>In The Bedroom </I>or <I>Moulin Rouge</I>. Granted, a movie or two has won Best Picture without a Best Director nomination... but of those who have, none of them has gotten by without a nomination in <I>either </I>of the screenplay categories, like <I>Moulin Rouge</I>. Despite some predictions of a late surge in favor of <I>Moulin Rouge</I>, I just can't believe a movie that isn't judged one of the best-directed <I>or </I>the best-written movies of the year could possibly win Best Picture. I think the lack of a director's nomination also dooms <I>In The Bedroom</I>.</div> <div> <I>Gosford Park </I>has only supporting actress nominations-- no balance. It does have a director and adapted screenplay nomination, but no editing or cinematography, plus it's up for Best Costume. Sorry, Mr. Altman.</div> <div> That leaves <I>A Beautiful Mind </I>and <I>The Lord of the Rings</I>. Both have director's and adapted screenplay nominations. Both have a nomination in one of the actor categories. Both are nominated in the editing category. <I>The Lord of the Rings </I>does have a nominaton for Best Cinematography, while <I>A Beautiful Mind </I>doesn't. In the "bad" categories, they even each other out (Supporting Actress vs. Costume). <I>Maybe </I>this adds up to a slim advantage for <I>The Lord of the Rings</I>... or maybe it just means that there's no definitive edge, and a prediction depends on a gut feeling.</div> <div> A chance to put Opie/ Richie Cunningham on the podium? My choice is <I><B>A Beautiful Mind</B></I>.</div> <bR> <div> <B>Best Director:</B></div> <div> <B>Ron Howard</B>, Ridley Scott, Robert Altman, Peter Jackson, David Lynch</div> <bR> <div> <B>Best Adapted Screenplay:</B></div> <div> <I><B>A Beautiful Mind</B></I>, <I>Ghost World</I>, <I>In The Bedroom</I>, <I>The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring</I>, and <I>Shrek</I></div> <bR> <div> <B>Best Original Screenplay:</B></div> <div> <I>Amelie</I>, <I>Gosford Park</I>, <I>Memento</I>, <I>Monster's Ball</I>, and <I>The Royal Tenenbaums</I></div> <bR> <div> Finally, a mention of <I>Memento</I>! But there's a clear trend-- Best Picture nominees have a leg up in screenplay categories. The only qualifier is <I><B>Gosford Park</B></I>.</div> <bR> <div> After I wrote this analysis, I checked out the trends at <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#0000BF" FACE="Times New Roman" ><A HREF="http://www.hsx.com" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.hsx.com"><U><U>http://www.hsx.com</U></U></A></FONT>, which usually is a good predictor of the Oscars. The only differences between the online speculation and mine is that investors believe that Halle Berry is the frontrunner for Best Actress, and that <I>Lord of the Rings </I>and <I>Memento</I> are the favorites for the screenplay awards. After investing in my picks, I also took a chance on the longshots Sean Penn and Renee Zellweger, so I may come out ahead either way. It's been years since I haven't won fake money by predicting the Oscars at hsx.com...</div> <bR> <div> <B>POSTSCRIPT:</B></div> <div> I have to say my predictions didn't turn out too badly. I believe I've discovered the secret: <I>Don't watch any of the movies!</I></div> <div> Of my eight predictions, only two missed. Ironically, one of them was the pick I (and almost everybody else) would have thought was the sure thing, Ian McKellen. The other category I missed (Best Actress) I read completely wrong, as I identified three plausible winners, none of which was the final choice... If only I could have made up for that miscalculation by guessing that Halle Berry was the "most likely to 'lose it' in accepting an Oscar."</div> <div> As for the show itself, a modest proposal for next year-- Ben Stiller and Owen Wilson to co-host. Anything but making Whoopi again!</div> <bR> </td> </tr></table></body>