Minute-by-Minute.
Election Night, 2008
1:55 AM-- Last post of this amazing night...
The national popular vote figures are now 52% Obama, 47% McCain. I think that with more votes counted out of California, it might get to 53-46 or so, but we will have to see.
As far as the remaining states-- Alaska is projected for McCain, and Indiana (finally!) for Obama. Of the others not called yet, Obama is about 12,000 votes up in North Carolina with 100% of the precincts in... so I'm not sure why no networks have called the race. Strange. Missouri is extremely close (about a 300 or 400 vote lead for McCain), but all of the big Democratic counties have reported, so I think McCain's lead will hold-- pending a possible recount, though I see no reason that the Obama people would go to the trouble. Montana is leaning towards McCain, but it will be close. Still, I think Obama will fall just a little short, and make my upset special prediction a loser. Last note from the presidential contests, the 2nd congressional district of Nebraska (Omaha and suburbs) is now, unofficially, showing an Obama win with all votes counted. Again, that's pending a recount, but if it holds, that's one more vote for Obama...
In the Senate, there are three races still undecided, and one is a surprise. In Oregon, I thought Jeff Merkley would win comfortably and give Democrats another seat. It's now very close, and the Republican incumbent is slightly ahead with more than half the votes counted. In Alaska, in a race that might take a week or so to sort out (according to news reports, Ted Stevens (R) is slightly ahead of Mark Begich (D), and since Alaska doesn't break its vote down by counties, it's impossible to see if there are lots of votes still to be counted in Anchorage (where Begich is mayor). And in Minnesota, Norm Coleman has a 1600 vote lead on Al Franken, but there's room for optimism-- many counties not reporting fully are normally Democratic counties. Without assuming results in these elections, Democrats have gained 5 Senate seats (New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, New Mexico, and Colorado). The estimates are that the gains in the House will be about 25, though accurate totals will come later. There aren't many governor's races tonight, but Democrats did gain one of them, in Missouri...
That's going to be it for tonight. A happy night!
12:19 AM-- First of all tonight, I think about the last two election nights-- not only the fact that my candidate lost, but that the results were uncertain until late into the night. This time, by 10 PM things were over. At this time in 2000 and 2004, we were waiting on either Florida or Ohio to tell us what happened. Things were much clearer tonight.
Then there is the contrast in emotions. I remember being so disappointed and depressed in both 2000 (at least until I learned later that Florida was still doubtful!) and 2004. It's much better to be on the winning side!
The fact that Obama is the first black president is of course something to consider, and the implications are probably too great, with the history of race relations in this country, to sum up in a few brief words. But Obama is a groundbreaker in other ways too. He's the first midwesterner to be elected president since, I suppose, Eisenhower. He's the first president elected since Kennedy to not be from either the south or California. And he's the first man from urban America, with his roots in a major city, to be elected... really, for decades. Bush I was technically a Houston resident, but he was really a man from Kennebunkport. Bush II and Reagan presented themselves as guys who loved their ranches. Clinton was The Man From Hope, certainly not a large town. Nixon? More a product of the suburbs. Kennedy's official residential address was in Boston, but it was only a convenience, and Hyannisport was really his home. And so on. For the next four years, when the president goes home for a while, he'll be going back to Chicago, and that's historically unusual, where presidents who have presided over an increasingly urban America have represented the values of small town or suburban America.
And he's the first representative of the post-boomer generation in the White House. He and I are of the same generation... he's actually about a year younger than me :)
I'll come back at least one more time to see if we can wrap up some of the outstanding races...
11:31 PM-- My new desktop background...
After taking a nice break to soak it in (again), what's left to look at with the numbers... Indiana, North Carolina, Missouri, and Montana are still outstanding, plus that one electoral vote from Nebraska to be decided. There's also a very tight Senate race in Minnesota, where Norm Coleman (R) is slightly ahead of Al Franken (D) with about half of the vote in. Not sure about the House races... I know Democrats have picked up at least 10 seats, but it might end up being more.
What happened tonight really is special, in perhaps ways I can't put into words right now. I'll try soon. For certain, the first White Sox fan in the White House ever :)
10:54 PM-- President-elect Obama. Just getting used to the sound of this...
For the past 20 years, it's become second nature to hear the phrase "President (-elect) Bush" or "President (-elect) Clinton"... it is fun to try out a new title!
In the past 30 minutes, while waiting for the Chicago speech, Nevada has been called for Obama, and Arizona and Idaho (maybe a few others) for McCain.
Obama now on stage with his family!
10:27 PM-- Well, that was fun :) I took a slight break to soak in the moment (and a little champagne).
McCain is now finishing his concession remarks. In the meantime, Florida, Colorado, and Virginia were called for Obama, finally. Just to recap, at 10 PM CST sharp, California, Oregon, Washington, and Hawaii were called for Obama, instantly putting him over the top. Then the scenes of people all around the country celebrating-- priceless. They just showed a huge crowd outside the gates of the White House, celebrating :)
The MSNBC count is now 333-156, and I'm not exactly sure which states are still outstanding. Probably still Indiana, North Carolina, and Missouri. The national vote is now up to 51%- 48%, and I think that will get to at least 52% or 53% by the end of the counting...
They are getting ready for Obama to come to Grant Park and speak now...
10:00 PM-- Barack Obama, 44th President of the United States. To quote one of Jack Buck's famous home run calls, "Go crazy, folks!"
9:53 PM-- MSNBC is very clearly telegraphing what is about to happen in 7 minutes, by saying there are "important calls to be made" at the top of the hour. I somehow can't quite believe it's going to be official in a few minutes!
9:45 PM-- Still waiting on the West Coast states, or else a break in one of the still undecided ones. I think what *may* be happening is that the networks are holding off on calling, say, Florida at the very least until the polls have closed on the West Coast, so as to not be charged with declaring the race over while the polls are still open somewhere. They were heavily criticized for this in past "landslide" elections, like Reagan's in 1984 and 1980. So while if Florida, for example, was more decisively running in Obama's favor (it's currently a 3% lead), they might have no choice but to call it, the fact that it's close gives them just enough of a cover to hold off until 10 PM CST. So the floodgates might be opening in a few minutes.
In the meantime, South Dakota and Nebraska have been called for McCain, but there's still a chance that Obama might win an electoral vote in Nebraska (one of the two states where they apportion EVs by congressional district).
9:23 PM-- Not much happening right now. The big undecided states are still very close, and they just said on MSNBC that Virginia and Indiana might not be called until all the votes are in. And it's about 35 minutes until the West Coast states, including California, report, which *could* be decisive regardless.
A few things-- The last remaining Republican congressman in New England was defeated tonight. There are now no Republicans in the House from New England, which is stunning... Also, the national vote so far is only 50% to 49% for Obama. That's closer than I'd like, just for appearances, but the California margins for Obama ought to boost the totals.
I've been hunting around for foreign news streams just to see how it's being covered. I saw a few minutes for the CBC coverage, but couldn't see the BBC stream...
8:56 PM-- Just about time for a new round of poll closings, including Iowa. From what I saw of the exit polls, Iowa was a little closer than it had been assumed, but if Obama wins that, it gets him closer to 270.
Right now, Obama is narrowly ahead in Virginia, Florida, and North Carolina, and more substantially ahead in Colorado, with fewer votes already counted. McCain is still slightly ahead in Indiana (though it had closed to about a 15,000 vote margin the last I saw, and Gary is still largely out), and also ahead in Missouri.
Also being counted now is the Senate race in Minnesota. Al Franken is ahead early, which would make another Democratic pickup.
At 9 sharp, Iowa is called for Obama. That's where it all began, back in January. Yay, Iowa! Utah is also called for McCain. Montana (which I have predicted for Obama, in a mild upset) and Nevada are too close to call, yet.
Amazingly, Arizona is still considered too close to call. Ouch for McCain! 207-129 for Obama, in electoral votes...
8:30 PM-- Some results I may have not mentioned-- McCain wins Texas, Louisiana, and Kansas. Tom Udall wins the open New Mexico seat, to make it +4 Democratic pickup.
And just now, New Mexico is also called for Obama. Now 200-85 for Obama... And Florida, North Carolina, Indiana, Virginia, and Colorado are still winnable for Obama. That's a total of 75 electoral votes in those states, and Iowa (polls close at 9 CST) is another 7 probable electoral votes for Obama. So it could potentially be over by the time the polls close on the West Coast.
8:22 PM-- MSNBC calls Ohio for Obama. Huge! West Virginia for McCain, but I'll take that trade any day... Now a total of 195-76 for Obama, in the electoral college.
Let's do some counting. California is 55 electoral votes. Oregon is 7. Washington is 10, and Hawaii is 4. That's 76 that almost certainly will go for Obama. That makes, presumably, at the very minimum, 271 for Obama.
It's all over. I'm willing to say it :)
8:11 PM-- Update... at 8 PM CST Obama picked up New York, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Rhode Island, and McCain was projected to win North Dakota (which had polled fairly close for Obama), and Wyoming. Along the way, Alabama and Georgia also have been called for McCain. So the current total is 174-64 Obama.
The same states that were too close to call before, are still too close. I think that the networks may be extremely cautious about calling states too early. It sure looks to me that Obama has a strong lead in North Carolina at least... also still ahead in Ohio and Florida, and Colorado and New Mexico are still too early to call. Again, all of these states went for Bush 4 years ago, so any of them going for Obama is an important gain from 2004. Obama is running ahead of Kerry in most areas of these states...
7:54 PM-- Getting close to the top of the hour, and about 20 states are going to close their polls. Most of them are probably McCain states, but there is also New York, Rhode Island, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, all of which should eventually go into Obama's column and boost his electoral totals even further. Plus, Colorado and New Mexico will start reporting, and these might finally be the states that flip from Republican in '04 to Dem this year.
Of the states still too close to call, Obama has a lead in Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida, and McCain a slim lead in Indiana and a slightly larger one in Virginia.
7:39 PM-- CNN finally agrees with MSNBC and calls Pennsylvania for Obama. To quote John McClane from Die Hard, "Welcome to the party, pal!"
7:31 PM-- Still no other states called in the presidential race, but the North Carolina Senate race is called... Now + 3 for the Democrats. I think that the Democrats will get very easily to + 7, but it will be very close in Minnesota for a + 8, and to get +9 or +10 for a filibuster-proof majority will take something breaking unusually in the Democrats' favor in Kentucky, Mississippi, or Georgia. McConnell, the Republican, is only up by 2% in Kentucky, though...
7:15 PM-- Senate update, another Democratic pickup in New Hampshire as Jeanne Shaheen beats Sununu. That's officially + 2 for the Democrats, but North Carolina returns should favor Hagen over Dole for a + 3.
I see that MSNBC called New Hampshire and Pennsylvania for Obama, but CNN hasn't. I'll wait until I see more confirmation on this. As for Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Indiana, and Virginia, still too close to call. These are all states that went for Bush 4 years ago, so if Obama gains any of them, it's significant in leading to the magic 270.
6:57 PM-- Almost time for a bunch of states to start reporting. Right now, McCain has picked up South Carolina, for a national lead of 16-3 electoral votes.
The Obama swing in Johnson County, Indiana, is now about 16% from 4 years ago. A statewide swing of 11% would give Obama a win in Indiana. Still no word from Gary or Bloomington, and only a few returns from Indianapolis.
In Virginia, still too early to know anything. Very few votes reporting from northern Virginia, or Richmond.
Top of the hour, and Pennsylvania is called immediately for Obama. Huge, if only because all of McCain's efforts there seem like they were wasted.
Many other states also for Obama-- Illinois, Maryland, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Maine, Massachusetts, maybe a few others. McCain gets Tennessee and Oklahoma. Electoral total, 103-34 Obama.
Florida and Missouri too close to call, as well as still Indiana, Virginia, and North Carolina. Any one of those 5 states might be all Obama needs...
Chris Matthews on MSNBC is practically declaring it over with Pennsylvania... But I'm waiting for more confirmation :)
6:41 PM-- An example of the improvement of Obama's numbers over Kerry's 4 years ago in Indiana-- in Johnson County, Bush won by almost 3-1 (73.7% to 25.6%). Right now, with 18% of the vote in there, it's 55%- 45% McCain. If there really is anything close to a 20% swing...
6:30 PM- Ohio (among other states) should start coming in now... North Carolina too...
One thing to look at in North Carolina is whether Kay Hagen will beat the incumbent Liddy Dole and give the Democrats another Senate seat. Two relative long shots for the Democrats, but they are still too close to call for now, are the Senate seats in Georgia and Kentucky.
Indiana is still very close, and this is looking better than ever for Obama, since he's running well ahead of Kerry '04 in Republican areas, and his big vote-getting areas (Indianapolis, Bloomington, Gary) haven't started to report yet...
Still 8-3 for McCain in electoral votes, but in the next 30 minutes those numbers will start to change. If for no other reason that Illinois' polls close at 7 CST, and it will be called for Obama 15 seconds later :)
6:11 PM-- Finally getting some raw numbers in. It has been an hour since Indiana started reporting, but still too close to call. I think that is good for Obama, all things considered. No prime Obama counties reporting yet... Virginia is also coming in, but still too early. If Obama would win either Indiana or Virginia (more likely Virginia) and hold Pennsylvania, that could be almost determinative...
Kentucky is called quickly for McCain, Vermont for Obama. Weirdly, as little as 30 years ago, you'd expect Kentucky to be called early for the Democrat, Vermont for the Republican...
Mark Warner has already picked up the first gain for the Dems in the Senate... + 1 so far.
