2002 Elections

<body topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 marginheight=0 marginwidth=0> <table cellpadding=0 cellspacing=0 border=0><tr> <td valign="top" colspan=2 height=90 BGCOLOR="#006699" TEXT="#080000" bgproperties="fixed" background="002285a1erlcgo.gif"> <div> <FONT SIZE="5" COLOR="#FFCC66" FACE="Arial" ><B>www.chapmansfriend.com</B></FONT><B>     |     </B><A HREF="default.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="www.chapmansfriend.com"><U><B>home</B></U></A></div> <div>                                                   </div> <div> </div> </td> </tr><tr> <td valign="top" width=210 BGCOLOR="#FFCC66" TEXT="#080000" background="001d2c00dkelyh.gif"> <div> <A HREF="id24.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="The World"><U>The World</U></A></div> </td> <td valign="top" height=390 BGCOLOR="#FFFFFF" TEXT="#080000"> <div> <B>2002 Elections</B></div> <div> I've been considering adding another section to this site for a while-- one where I can offer my opinions on anything having to do with politics, current events, whatever's in the news. </div> <div> Why haven't I done it before now? Too lazy.</div> <div> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Parade" >This is the ideal time to start it, though... I can use this page to offer my predictions on the midterm elections. I admit that I bleed Democrat blue (or whatever color the networks decide represents Democrats this year), but I am aggressively objective when it comes to analyzing elections. Proof? I have won real money in the </FONT><A HREF="http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/"><U>Iowa Electronic Market</U></A>s<FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Parade" > in five consecutive elections (1992-2000)... including 1994, when I made a last-minute switch to predict the Republican takeover of Congress.</FONT></div> <bR> <div> <B>For This Year:</B></div> <bR> <div> Let's look at the Senate, House, and Governor's races in order. I'll comment a little on selected races, and then make my overall predictions.</div> <bR> <div> <B>Senate:</B></div> <div> In <B>Illinois</B>, the race has been over for a while now. The state Republicans apparently pulled the financial plug on their candidate, the cunningly named <I>Durkin </I>running against Senator Dick <I>Durbin</I>, about a month ago. It's been amusing to see a Durbin commercial with schoolkids shouting <B>"B!"</B> while</div> <div> spelling his name. I don't predict victory margins because there aren't posted percentage spreads, and otherwise what's the point, but this will probably be a double-digit win. </div> <div> Tom Harkin is up for re-election in <B>Iowa</B>, and while Republicans always have high hopes of taking him down, he's probably going to win again. The Harkin campaign was in hot water for a while over leaking some private remarks made at a Greg Ganske (Republican) contributor's meeting, but then the elderly subject of a Ganske commercial was revealed to be... an actress! And not from Iowa! That stuff doesn't play well with Hawkeyes.</div> <div> Of course, the situation in <B>Minnesota</B> is shaped by the death of Paul Wellstone. To put it back to politics, it was a splendid little 5-day campaign. This <I>may</I> be a sign of my partisan leanings, but... Norm Coleman (R) is a fool. First of all, he's one of the two clowns (the other being Skip Humphrey) directly responsible for the spectacle that is Governor Jesse Ventura. Secondly, I once saw a Coleman commercial in one of his St. Paul mayoral races where he proclaimed, "The Pride Is Back"-- apparently not realizing or not caring that it was also the slogan of the buffoonish candidate played by Richard Dreyfuss in <I>The American President</I>. And finally, his major attack theme against Walter Mondale appears to be that... he's been on corporate boards! He's not as radical as Paul Wellstone was!</div> <div> Which, if anything, might make some people shift from Coleman back to Mondale.</div> <div> I can't imagine that anybody who had already decided to vote for Wellstone (polls showed him with a decisive lead just before he died) is now going to vote against Mondale. Plus, I think the idea of someone with institutional memory of the Senate going back there has some real merit... maybe it will add a little more perspective. Mondale should win, but two polls out today showed different results.</div> <div> Other races: <B>Missouri</B>... it's very tough for a relative political novice to win re-election at this level. Carnahan will probably lose. <B>South Dakota</B>... even if televised ads only influence a handful of voters at a time, remember that TV time is cheap in South Dakota so there have been scads of commercials on the air, and there aren't that many voters to begin with anyway. This will be close. I'm betting that Tim Johnson (D) wins re-election, but I'm not confident in my prediction. <B>New Hampshire</B>... normally, Jeanne Shaheen (D) would be a clear favorite. She seems a little like a real-life Jed Bartlet (popular Dem. governor) without the Nobel Prize. But running against Sununu The Younger, she will probably lose a close one. I'm no more confident of this pick than the one in South Dakota. <B>North Carolina</B>... looks like there will be a Dole back in the Senate.</div> <bR> <div> <B>Overview: </B>The Republicans should take back a seat in Missouri, but Democrats should pick up seats in Arkansas and Colorado. Left there, it would make it a 51-48-1 Senate... but what happens in New Hampshire and South Dakota will be the deciding factor. I'll say a net Democratic gain of one seat.</div> <bR> <div> <B>House</B>:</div> <div> I sense that there is a slight national trend toward Democrats, but not enough to switch control of the House. I'll guess a net pickup of three seats for Democrats.</div> <bR> <div> <B>Governor:</B></div> <div> Democrats haven't won an election for governor in <B>Illinois </B>in 30 years. It <I>looks </I>like they are going to break through this year, but a recent poll suggested that Rod Blagojevic's big lead over Jim Ryan is dwindling. To be honest, that doesn't surprise me since I think Blagojevic is a relatively weak candidate... he just seems a little too Bob-Forehead-ish. (I voted for Paul Vallas in the primary.) Still, it's a testament to how much most voters all over the state want a change in parties in the Governor's Mansion that the favorite is a three-term Congressman from Chicago with a machine-alderman father-in-law and a bad haircut.</div> <div> The Rolando Cruz case doesn't help Ryan either (the same goes for Attorney General candidate Joe Birkett, who's probably going to lose to Lisa Madigan, the daughter of the Democratic House leader). Ryan oversaw the prosecution of Cruz for a child murder while his prosecutors concealed exculpatory evidence, and Cruz spent years on death row until somebody else confessed to the crime. The last-minute commercials for both Blagojevic and Madigan have been hammering pretty hard on the case.</div> <div> In <B>Iowa</B>, one of the surprises from four years ago was Tom Vilsack's upset win for the Democrats. Like with Harkin, Republicans focused on winning this race, but though I think Vilsack is more vulnerable than Harkin, I still think he'll win. If he does serve out a full second term, that would make him (by my count) the longest-serving Democratic governor in Iowa history.</div> <div> Other races: <B>Massachusetts</B>... Mitt Romney sure looked like a winner when he jumped in the race, despite Massachusetts being a Democratic stronghold. Olympic glory and all. But,, I think the Democrat Shannon O'Brien is going to end up winning. <B>Tennessee</B>... the Republican has an unfortunate last name for a candidate from his party-- <I>Hilleary</I>. Despite that,, he'll win. <B>California</B>... Republicans have nobody to blame but themselves. If they had nominated anyone else-- up to and including Sasquatch-- to run against Gray Davis, he/she/it would be winning in a landslide. Instead, they nominated Bill Simon. <I>Wamp...wamp...waaahh</I>. <B>Florida</B>... Jeb Bush looks like he will win re-election. If he doesn't,, you can bet that Jim Baker will be on a plane to Tallahassee faster than you can say "Katherine Harris". <B>Idaho</B>... Dirk Kempthorne will be re-elected. I don't have a comment here, I just think "Dirk Kempthorne" is a fun name to say. <B>Alabama, Arizona, Hawaii, and Rhode Island</B>... Republicans should be favored in Alabama and Arizona, and Democrats in Hawaii, and yet the smart money is going the other way in each case. Without knowing much about the local issues, I have to think that longterm political trends mean something, so I'll take the Republican in Alabama and the Democrat in Hawaii. Just a hunch. <B>Michigan</B>... Jennifer Granholm, the favored Democrat, was born in Canada. Had to mention that!</div> <bR> <div> <B>Overview: </B>There will be a bunch of shifts here. Republicans should win Democratic seats in Alaska (how'd that happen in the first place?), New Hampshire, and Alabama. Democrats should win Republican seats in Illinois, Michigan, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island. In addition, Democrats should win a formerly Independent seat in Maine, and will probably win a three-party race in Minnesota for Ventura's seat. That would result in a 26-24 Democratic advantage, a Democratic gain of 5.</div> <bR> <div> "Vote early and vote often." </div> <bR> </td> </tr></table></body>