Playoffs

<body topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 marginheight=0 marginwidth=0> <table cellpadding=0 cellspacing=0 border=0><tr> <td valign="top" colspan=2 height=90 BGCOLOR="#006699" TEXT="#080000" bgproperties="fixed" background="002285a1erlcgo.gif"> <div> <FONT SIZE="5" COLOR="#FFCC66" FACE="Arial" ><B>www.chapmansfriend.com</B></FONT><B>     |     </B><A HREF="default.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="www.chapmansfriend.com"><U><B>home</B></U></A></div> <div> <A HREF="id2.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Music"><U>Music</U></A>   <A HREF="id4.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Television"><U>Television</U></A>   <A HREF="id5.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Movies"><U>Movies</U></A>   <A HREF="id6.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Traveling Man"><U>Traveling Man</U></A>   <A HREF="id7.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Our Game"><U>"Our Game"</U></A>   <A HREF="id8.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Books"><U>Books</U></A>   <A HREF="id21.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Marky The Greek. "><U>Marky The Greek. </U></A>   <A HREF="id9.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Links"><U>Links</U></A></div> <div> </div> </td> </tr><tr> <td valign="top" width=210 BGCOLOR="#FFCC66" TEXT="#080000" background="001d2c00dkelyh.gif"> <bR> </td> <td valign="top" height=390 BGCOLOR="#FFFFFF" TEXT="#080000"> <div> <B>PLAYOFFS</B></div> <div> <B>October 10:</B></div> <div> The funny thing about Monday's Game 5 between the Braves and the Giants is that I was kind of hoping the Braves would pull it out, even though I picked the Giants to win the series. My reasoning was, it's just as impressive to go 0-for-4 as it is to go 4-for-4...</div> <div> If it's any defense, all four divisional series, with the possible exception of the Cardinals-Diamondbacks one, ended up with upsets. What's ahead for the league championships?</div> <div> <B>Twins and Angels</B></div> <div> I still think that the<B> </B>Angels aren't quite as solid as the Twins. They have an offense that depends on getting lots of base hits rather than the big home run, and teams like that often flare out in the postseason because (as James pointed out 20 years ago) it's harder to put together 4 or 5 hits in an inning against playoff-quality pitching than it is to get a home run. On the other hand, has this been invalidated by the Voros McCracken findings that there is little difference between individual pitchers' ability to prevent base hits, and the only things he really has influence over are strikeouts, walks, and home runs?</div> <div> [<I>Potentially mind-numbing sabermetric discussion stopped in its tracks!</I>]</div> <div> Anyway... I think that the Angels will have a harder time putting together run-scoring innings than the Twins. Minnesota has <I>slightly </I>more power, and a good bullpen, so I say <B>Twins</B>. As I'm writing this the series is tied at 1-1, so I'm not unduly influenced by what's happened so far.</div> <div> <B>Giants and Cardinals</B></div> <div> Here, the Giants are up 1-0 right now, so Game One might have influenced me, but my feeling that Bonds would finally show up in postseason (on the record in the first round comments) seems to be coming true. The Cradinals probably have a better-rounded offense, but if Bonds can produce it will overshadow that. </div> <div> There is some sentiment for the Cardinals as a "team of destiny" because of the Darryl Kile tragedy, and they could end up winning, but I can't believe that things like that really have a carryover effect. If they did, I have to think the Yankees would have been winners in the 2001 Series. It would be a good story if St. Louis got to the Series, but I think this may be the <B>Giants'</B> year.</div> <div> On a side note, I'm thinking about setting up a separate "rants" page on this site, and if I do the first entry will be to rant about how utterly irritating Tim McCarver is. When, exactly, did TV sports divisions decide that televised baseball couldn't exist without his pompous, grating commentary?</div> <div> And I <I>liked </I>him as a player, too!</div> <div> <B>October 1:</B></div> <div> Surprisingly, my preseason picks turned out pretty well. 4 out of 6 division winners predicted correctly, and the two I missed, I had picked to finish second. What makes me feel even better about my record is that I went back to the preseason predictions by the Baseball Prospectus people... and out of 18 staffers, only one picked 5 of the 6 divisions correctly, and only three others did equally as well as me. </div> <div> Emboldened by this, I'll make my playoff predictions public as well, but it's actually almost easier to pick a season's worth of developments than to forecast what will happen in a 5 or 7 game series. Freaky things can happen.</div> <bR> <div> <B>First Round:</B></div> <div> <B>Twins and Athletics</B></div> <div> The Twins were one of my two "teams" this year, and I'm still kind of cheering them on, but realistically this won't be a repeat of '87 or '91. The Twins are still a little inexperienced, they won by beating up on a weak division (all those games against the Tigers and Royals... MMMM!!!), and Oakland probably has the best team in baseball. <B>Athletics.</B></div> <bR> <div> <B>Angels and Yankees</B></div> <div> The Angels were the one playoff team that truly surprised me, since I picked them last in the AL West. Like the Twins, I think that if they have playoff success due them, it'll be in the future. <B>Yankees</B>, easy.</div> <bR> <div> <B>Cardinals and Diamondbacks</B></div> <div> The D'Backs have the two best starting pitchers in the league, which by itself should be enough to get them past the first round, but the Cardinals have overcome more obstacles than that to get this far already. <B>Diamondbacks.</B></div> <bR> <div> <B>Giants and Braves</B></div> <div> Despite the fact that the Braves have the best record in the league, it really all comes down to whether Barry Bonds can finally perform in the postseason. When he's playing like he has the past two years-- let's be honest, the past dozen years-- he can carry a team singlehandedly, but in a short series who knows whether he'll do that, or get a few bad at-bats which will just reinforce that old "Bonds can't hit in the playoffs" feeling. I say he does it. <B>Giants.</B></div> <bR> <div> After these are finished, we'll see whether I want to risk any more predictions...</div> <bR> <bR> </td> </tr></table></body>