Marky The Greek.

For the past few years, I have been able to consistently "beat the odds" and come out ahead in picking NFL games. Of course, I can't do anything with this gift since I don't live in Nevada, don't know any bookies, and don't trust those offshore betting sites. But, this year I can post my weekly picks online for public consumption. Still, to quote Norman "The Man" Chad, none of these predictions should be used as the basis for any actual cash money wagers.

My ground rules: 5 games per each week's schedule, using the odds from the Friday USA Today (or for the day of game if it's a Thursday game).

2009 Season

February 7: On the games two weeks ago, I went 1-1 (Saints won in overtime but didn't cover). But, nailed the "big" bet on the over/under of Saints-Vikings, making my total record of the season thus far 58-47-2. I can make a few picks today and still assure myself a winning record for the year :)

NO vs. IND (-5). Since I can afford to bet sentimentally, I will do so. I think the smart bet is on the Colts, but the Saints certainly have a puncher's chance, and even without winning could certainly come within 5 points. So, NO + 5. And let's make that 3X, just for fun...

In addition, I'm going to cover the possibility of either Manning or Brees winning MVP by putting one "bet" on each of them-- Manning at even odds, Brees at 3-1. Worst that happens, Manning will be MVP and I'll get something out of the day. Best that happens, the Saints win, Brees is MVP, and I come out even further ahead...

Um, Go Saints...

January 24: Winning both of last Sunday's games made me 3-1 for the weekend, 4-4 for the playoffs so far, and 45-46-2 for the season to date. So... I'm close to getting a winning season. Now all I have to do is select the right pick and let the season rise or fall on it!

NYJ at IND (-7.5). There's always the chance that the Jets pull out another one this week and win, but I think it's more than likely that their run has ended, if for no other reason that Mark Sanchez' run is going to end. Poise notwithstanding. I think the most damning set of stats that's come up this week is the comparision between DaMarcus Russell's passing statistics last year and Sanchez's this year... and Russell's were far, far better. Despite the fact that even last year, Russell was being written off as a wasted pick, statistically, he outshone Mr. Poise. Make of that what you will... IND - 7.5.

MIN at NO (-3.5). The biig enchilada of the week, and a matchup that arguably is more fascinating than anything the Super Bowl might see. Can Favre do what he's always had problems doing and win on the road in a dome? (Remember, though, that the Packers' Super Bowl win came at the Superdome.) Can the Saints break through all the years of suckitude and get to the Super Bowl? For that matter, either team getting to the Big Game is, in historical terms, quite remarkable. Not only have the Saints never been there, the Vikings haven't been there since January 1977. (Fran Tarkenton hosted SNL the week after that game.) There's no point in pretending that I want anything other than a Saints win, and that means I can't do anything other than pick them to cover. (I guess I could play mind games and bet against them, trying to prepare myself for a loss, but then there's the old Hunter Thompson theory about being prepared to bet a sentimental favorite and lose, but being karmically unprepared to bet against your heart and then also lose.) Therefore, NO - 3.5.

But, in the playoffs, I permit myself to both increase my imaginary wagering and make use of over/under lines and prop bets. In this case, the real "sure thing" has to be the "over" on 53 points. I could be surprised and have this be a low-scoring defensive struggle, but I just forsee a high-scoring shootout. I figure that betting this line 12X would assure me a winning (52.4%) record this season even if I lost both picks against the spread this week, and in the Super Bowl too. So, putting it all on the line... 12X on the "over" of 53 points.

Who dat, indeed.

January 17: Bookkeeping time-- last week, a rather sickly 1-3 record, with only the Cowboys a winner. Yesterday, I split 1-1, though obviously if I'd known that '99 Warner wouldn't be playing up to par, I might have decided differently. Who Dat say they gonna beat dem Saints? Updated season record, 43-46-2.

Today's games, the final ones from the divisional round...

DAL at MIN (-2.5). The ultimate no-win scenario. You ever heard of a no-win situation? You know, Vietnam, this... If the Cowboys win, we are treated to a week of "the Cowboys are back", embarrassing over-coverage of Tony Romo's "growth as a leader", and way too many glimpses of Jerry Jones' grotesque face. If the Vikings win, it's a week of "Favre still has it" and way too many glimpses of Brett's grizzled beard. Putting all that aside, I'll say a comfortable Vikings win is more likely, so MIN - 2.5.

NYJ at SD (-7). I don't know if they can pull it off and win, but I'd say the Jets have a very good chance of staying within a TD, especially if Shonn Greene (Iowa!) stays as effective as he was last week. Plus, you know, there's Mark Sanchez's "poise". Speaking of something that we'd be tired of hearing about for the next week if the Jets won... NYJ + 7.

January 16:

AZ at NO (-7). My heart says, "Saints". My head says, "Cardinals, as long as '99 Warner is still playing." I hate to do it, but I have to say AZ + 7, and root for the Saints to pull out a close one...

BAL at IND (-6). Though the Ravens were effective in their demolition of the Patriots last week, earning them the thanks of a grateful nation, I feel that the Colts will be a different matter. IND - 6.

January 10: Let's finally get to last week's results, the final week of the regular season. I lost two games because the Colts and Bengals tanked it and took it easy in advance of the playoffs, but won the other three games for a 3-2 week, 41-42-2 for the season. Once again, it all comes down to making up the difference in the postseason...

I'm already 1-1 for the Wild-Card round, but the last two games of the week...

BAL at NE (-3.5). The Patriots should be able to come back and win this one game. After that, who knows? NE - 3.5.

GB at AZ (-1). I know that they went to the Super Bowl and all last year, but it still seems odd to see the Cardinals favored in a playoff game. Nevertheless, the Packers seem to be peaking right now, and unless what Big Daddy Drew from Deadspin calls "'99 Warner" shows up, I think the Pack wins. GB + 1.

January 9: I'll wrap up last week tomorrow, but for now let me pick the Saturday playoff games...

NYJ at CIN (-2.5). CIN - 2.5

PHI at DAL (-4). DAL - 4

January 3: First bad week in a while, but my 1-3-1 week could have been a little better with some tweaking. For example, my "push" was the Steelers game, which (according to the USA Today line) had a 3 point spread. On espn.com, where I pick all the games each week, the line was 2 1/2 points, so it ended up a win for me there... but not here. The Vikings game was a loss no matter where, though. For the season, 38-40-2.

You might have seen, as the "best sports stories" of the decade were counted down this past week, the story of the college softball player who tore her ACL rounding the bases on her first career home run, and because if she'd been helped around the bases by her own teammates, she would have been called out and her homer wouldn't have counted. Story here. Great story. Well, my version of this-- not wanting to take advantage of a vulnerability to score easy points-- is that this week, I will not take advantage of the Saints- Panthers line printed in Thursday's paper (before it was announced that Drew Brees and virtually every other crucial Saint would sit this one out), which still has the Saints favored. If the Saints lose because of this, an easy assumption, this would be an easy win, but no...

And I'm not picking this game, but this is too good a line to just throw away unused-- What two things are ugly and both ended in Detroit? The Pontiac Aztek and the 2009 Bears' season. Thank you, I'll be here all week, try the veal, it's the best in the city!

NE at HOU (-8). I know that the Patriots have their playoff spot secure, and the Texans are playing for their life, and the Patriots may very well rest their starters, but I still depend upon Belichick to be insane and play this like the Super Bowl. NE + 8.

IND (-1) at BUF. Kind of the same situation, but here I expect that Manning and the rest will play enough to secure the win... especially after the criticism last week. IND - 1.

KC at DEN (-13). Thirteen points? Call me crazy ("CRAZY!!!"), but that's too many to give... KC + 13.

BAL (-10.5) at OAK. Same thing-- the Ravens aren't treally the kind of offensive powerhouse to run up the score on the road, plus Insane Al Davis will draw and quarter the Raiders if they lose the last game big. Just kidding about that Al Davis thing. I think. OAK + 10.5.

CIN at NYJ (-10). Once again, playoff-bound teams resting starters may play a role, but even with that, the Jets seem capable of blowing a playoff opportunity only given to them by a fluke last week. CIN + 10.

December 27: Another 2-3 week last week, unfortunately, making it 37-37-1 for the season...

This week?

BUF at ATL (-9.5). Still sticking with the Bills, for some reason. BUF + 9.5.

BAL at PIT (-3). Steelers at home seems like a good bet to me this week... PIT - 3.

HOU at MIA (-3). Man, there seem to be a bunch of 7-7 teams still left playing... Both of these teams could be up or down any given week, but let's say the Dolphins at home,,, MIA - 3.

NYJ at IND (-5). Ah, the annual guessing game... will the Colts play their starters late in the season long enough to allow them to cover? I say no, this week... NYJ + 5.

MIN (-7) at CHI. Time to count on the Bears sucking, I think... MIN - 7.

December 20: Not a good week. Losers with all but the Panthers and Eagles for a 2-3 week, 35-34-1 for the season...

The games this week seem unusually difficult to pick. No "easy" ones jump out at me.

Yes, that's meant as an excuse if I have a lousy week!

SF at PHI (-8.5). The spread seems too high for me. I trust the "Coach Singletery" that I see on Letterman each week :) SF + 8.5.

CHI at BAL (-11). Sooner or later, the Bears will surprise me in a pleasnt way, and this week when playing the Ravens seems as good a time as any. CHI + 11.

OAK at DEN (-14). Rivalry game. Should be closer than two touchdowns, no? OAK + 14.

GB at PIT (-2). The Steelers' losing streak has surely gone on too long, right? PIT - 2.

NYG (-3) at WAS. I Know taht Washington's been playing better as of late, but... come on, it's still a Dan Snyder operation. NYG - 3.

December 13: Finishing up strong now... After losing the Thursday night pick last week, I rebounded by going 3-1 on the weekend, losing only on the 49ers game. Yes, I was only able to do this well because of taking the Raiders, and specifically saying "let's not pretend they will win", and they did, but it still counts... So, 3-2 on the week, 33-31-1 for the season.

No time to get comfortable now-- let's keep this winning streak going...

GB (-3) at CHI. As improbable as a Bears' win would be, that's what I sense is going to happen. Bears fans haven't known what to expect all season long, much less a win against the Pack here, after Green Bay has been so strong recently. CHI + 3.

CAR at (NE (-13.5). Once the spell of Patriot invincibility fades, it may be gone for good. If New England does win, it won't be by any two touchdowns... CAR + 13.5.

BUF at KC (Pick 'em). Well, one of these teams has to win, yes??? Actually, the Bills have been my trendy pick for a few weeks, but time to give them a rest. KC.

WAS (-1) at OAK. Two teams that looked moribund earlier in the season, but which are now showing some life. I think the Raiders' revival is more likely to continue at home, so OAK + 1.

PHI at NYG (-1). All NFL teams are basically unpredictable ("any given Sunday" and all that), but it seems like these two teams are especially unpredictable this season. Let's flip a coin and go with the Eagles, PHI + 1. Incidentally, this discovery that coin flips are not a 50-50 probability but rather 51-49 completely blew my stathead mind.

December 6: Last week, I came within a last-second game-winning TD pass by Vince Young of going 5-0... and even with that, I went undefeated at 4-0-1. That's how good last week was. Yes, the Cardinals pick was a push. But the Bills? Winners. Washington came within the spread-- winners! The Vikings? Winners. And the Saints? Oh yes. Winners. 4-0-1 for the week, 30-29-1 for the season.

I must admit that my Grey Cup pick was a loser, though... and that I started this week with a loss, taking the Bills on Thursday night. So with the rest of the games this week...

OAK at PIT (-14.5). Let's not pretend that the Steelers will lose, but the Raiders seem to have righted themselves somewhat, so 14 and a half points is too massive a spread to pass up. OAK + 14.5.

HOU at JAX (Pick 'em).

SF at SEA (Pick 'em). I can't resist pick 'em games-- it's the law. JAX and SF to win.

BAL at GB (-3.5). Forecast is for snow and cold at Lambeau Monday night... Frozen tundra! GB - 3.5.

December 3: The summary of last week's picks will come as usual on Sunday morning (spoiler-- another very good week), but while I normally stay away from the Thursday night games, I like tonight's game...

NYJ (-3) "at" BUF. It's not really a "home" game for the Bills, since it's one of their Toronto getaways, but I still like the way that Buffalo has been playing lately. As an added surprise, tonight will be played by CFL rules. "What do you mean there's no 4th down?!?!?!" BUF + 3.

November 29: Finally, a 4-1 week. Only the Bears failed to come through for me-- my analysis of the situation was essentially correct ("there's no way they can look that bad again"), but still, they were bad enough to lose. The end of Cutlermania was inevitable. Anyway, 4-1 for the week, 26-29 for the season. I abstained from the Thanksgiving games, so I have fewer games to choose from this week...

MIA (-3.5) at BUF. Each season I am mysteriously bullish on one particular team, without any good reason. This season, I think it's the Bills. BUF + 3.5.

WAS at PHI (-9). Is it my imagination, or has Washington been less lousy lately? It's too bad-- I really enjoy mocking them for being completely inept. WAS + 9.

CHI at MIN (-10.5). I believe that in the football handicapping industry, this game is what they might call a "perfect storm", with all factors pointing in one direction. Guess which direction that is? MIN - 10.5.

AZ at TEN (-3). Unless the Titans are going to run the table under Vince Young, the smart pick is to keep betting against them until they lose. AZ + 3.

NE at NO (-1.5). As Mercury Morris and his bitter teammates watch nervously... NO - 1.5.

BONUS Grey CUP pick! Roughriders vs. Alouettes (-9.5). Go Alouettes! Represent for Quebec :) MONTREAL - 9.5. I hope I get to see a rouge!

November 22:

Only the Chargers and the Packers were winning picks for me last week, leading to a 2-3 week, 22-28 overall. For the record, my percentage in picking all the games is (counting this week's Thursday night game) is 51.7%-- much better than the 44% I have in my "highlighted" games. It's even worse than that... if I'm 44% in my "highlighted" games, then I'm actually 55.8% in the rest of the games. But I've already tried the picking-games-at-random thing, and it failed miserably...

IND at BAL (-1). I'm not sure I've ever seen a team still undefeated this late in the season an underdog to a 5-4 team, even if they're on the road, but here you go. After last week, I'm not prepared to bet against the Colts. IND + 1.

BUF at JAX (-8.5). In basketball and baseball, there's a fairly well-established principle that a new manager or coach will get their team to play better for the few games immediately after they take over. It happens rarely in the NFL that there's a coaching change in mid-season, so I'm just guessing that the same effect might be at play here. BUF+ 8.5.

ATL at NYG (-6.5). It appears that for the time being, we can stop pretending that Eli Manning has completely solved this NFL thing. I don't see the Giants being significantly better than average now, so ATL + 6.5 seems like a good gamble.

NYJ at NE (-10). Methinks Bill Belichick has something to prove this week and will press the Patriots extra hard? NE - 10.

PHI (-3) at CHI. The Bears' last game, with the 5 Cutler INTs, was an absolute disaster, and there's no way they can look that bad again. Hence this pick. CHI + 3.

November 15:

Last week was my first winning week in a few tries-- 3-2, with the Texans, Panthers, and Bengals being winning picks. But... a chance to go 4-1 ended when the Broncos didn't show up in the second half against the Steelers, and though I've now had 6 winning weeks out of 9, what I really need are 4-1 and 5-0 weeks, not 3-2 weeks. In my 6 "winning" weeks, I'm 18-12. In the three losing weeks, I'm 2-13. I've lost more games to the .500 mark in three losing weeks than I've gained in six winning ones, making me 20-25 overall.

ATL (-1.5) at CAR. Is Jake Delhomme just gonna sit back and let Jay Cutler steal his league lead in interceptions? Hell no! ATL - 1.5.

BUF at TEN (-7). Once, maybe. Twice, perhaps. But can Vince Young go out and win three straight games after languishing for over a year? I think not, but if he does, the decision to bench him last season is starting to look very questionable. BUF + 7.

DEN (-3.5) at WAS. Right now, I'm in the mood to give any and all points to Washington, and let them prove me wrong. Furthermore, Dan Snyder makes it a pleasure to root against this team. DEN - 3.5.

DAL (-3) at GB. OK, it's also a pleasure to root against the Cowboys too. GB + 3.

PHI at SD (-1). A one-point spread makes it basically a pick' em game, so the angle is to take SD -1.

November 8:

Last week saw the rarely-executed perfect week. Unfortunately for me, perfectly awful. 0-5 for the week, 17-23 on the season, and, as Mark McGwire would say, "I'm not here to talk about the past."

In my initial run-through of picking this week, I found something unusual-- I selected all the favorites to win. Usually I'll do that first without consulting the spread, and normally I'll have picked out some underdogs. This time, none. So this week it'll be all about playing the angles with the spread...

HOU at IND (-9). The Colts have a habit of underperforming against the spread-- look at last week when they beat the 49ers by 4. Yeah, they beat the Rams 42-6 the previous week, but still. Assuming the Texans have much of a pulse, they might beat the spread here. HOU + 9.

DET at SEA (-10). I know it's the Lions, but should the Seahawks really be favored by 10 points no matter who they're playing? DET + 10.

BAL (-3) at CIN. Assuming the Bengals are for real-- an assumption I've made mistakenly in the past-- it's not hard to imagine this being a close game throughout, and therefore, a good bet to make a CIN + 3 pick stand up.

CAR at NO (-13). I do think the Saints are for real, but they seem to be living dangerously too-- winning despite turnovers, ect. Not hard to imagine a crucial turnover costing them a few points here. CAR + 13.

PIT (-3) at DEN. This game is similar to the Bengals game-- teh favored road team should win, but the home team has enough to keep it close. DEN + 3.

November 1:

That whole picking-games-at-random thing? Yeah, let's forget about that for now... Although I didn't do very well overall against the spread last week (5-8), I did much worse in picking them at random. And some of those picks were just horribly off-- I took the Bears and 1 1/2, they were blown out by 35. I took the Raiders (again, what was I thinking?) and 6, they lost 38-0. The Chiefs lost by 30, so getting 4 1/2 points was not really relevant. Only the increasingly hapless Washington gave me a win. 1-4 for the week, 17-18 on the season.

For this week...

HOU (-3.5) at BUF. BUF + 3.5. I would be lying if I pretended to have an interesting comment on this game.

SEA at DAL (-9.5). The Cowboys should win, but it seems they've been underperforming against the spread so far. SEA + 9.5.

NYG at PHI (Pick 'em). The football version of the World's Series matchup, and as the Yankees are (so far) getting the better of that one, so too should the Giants. NYG.

JAX at TEN (-3). I know the Titans are due for a win sooner or later, and yes, the Jags are no great shakes either, but to expect a win in Vince Young's first start in ages? I was once a big Young fan, but now I'm doubtful. JAX + 3.

MIN at GB (-3). Favre beating the Pack at the Metrodome is one thing. I have a feeling that the zombified corpse of Don Hutson will get medieval on somebody's ass if Farve ends up winning at Lambeau. Hey, he's just a kid out there, having fun, throwing crippling interceptions. GB - 3.

October 25:

Good news first-- I ran up another 3-2 week, making it 5 winning weeks out of 6 so far. Predictably, after ragging on the Raiders and Rams, those were the games I lost-- but the Packers covered against the Lions, and then the Saints and Cardinals came through and won outright. 16-14 so far on the season.

The bad news... is not so much bad news as statistically odd news. 3-2 is a nice record for 5 games-- 60%. However, I have been picking all the games against the spread in an online pool (not for money, just for fun), and last week my overall record was... 11-3. 78.6%. Yes, quite a bit better than my cherry-picked selections here. This is not the first time this has happened this season, either. Three weeks out of six my overall % has been higher than my Marky the Greek %. As a wise man once said, "there's something happening here, what it is ain't exactly clear."

So, for this week, an experiment. Instead of choosing through whatever method 5 games on my own, I will let random chance select my games. I have marked down my picks against the spread for all games, and will generate through random.org (a site operated from Trinity College in Dublin, just a stone's throw from St. Stephen's Green and Temple Bar... Ah, Dublin...) the random numbers that correspond to each game. The five numbers that come up first out of the random ordering of 13 will determine my picks this week. So, let's crunch these numbers...

Here's what we came up with.

7 is the number representing NYJ (-6) at OAK. Surprisingly, after last week's comments, my sense is that the Raiders might play the Jets close, if perhaps not win outright. So I'm picking OAK +6.

6 stands for MIN at PIT (-5). I look for the Stillers to win, but again, for the Vikings to keep it close. MIN + 5.

3 represents SD (-4.5) at KC. One of the lessons from last week's games was that the Chargers are pretty weak in the running game this season. Couple that with playing on the road, against a Chiefs team finally off the schneid, and I like KC + 4.5.

Hmm. So far, three games I probably would have cherry-picked on my own. To continue...

The number 10 stands for CHI at CIN (-1.5). The Bengals have been so unpredictable this season that I don't know what to make of them, and the same is true for the Bears-- Cutler has been very up-and-down. My guess is that the Bears' "up" cycle (they lost last week) coincides with the Bengals' "down" cycle to give the Bears the win-- so, CHI + 1.5.

And finally... number 13 gives us the Monday night game, PHI (-7) at WAS. Washington is in collapse mode after last week's game, and the new offensive play-caller has been out of the league for a few years and was, no joke, calling bingo games last week. It seems liek such a sucker bet to pick against them that I'm tempted to go the other way and say that the team will rally when faced with these odds... But really. This is Dan Snyder's team. Hopeless. PHI - 7.

On the surface, these don't look like bad picks, and maybe I would have picked some of them left to my own. But it's all up to random probability now! Let's see what happens...

October 18:

Another winning week-- 3-2, though it took until the Monday night game in Miami to secure my third win. In particular, I put a winning week in jeopardy by rejecting the excellent advice to avoid picking the Raiders. Oh, they are lousy this season... But with the Lions beating the spread, and the Broncos and Dolphins winning outright, all was well. 13-12 overall. Oh, and I was 7-7 on picking the entire slate of games, so I was 3-2 in "these" games, 4-5 in the others. I'll delay any consideration of a "reverse experiment" until that turns around...

For this week, in a few games I'm going to embrace an emerging trend of this season, which is that some spreads which seem too big are actually too small. So far this year, double-digit favorites have covered 75% of the time, and lots of times, the underdogs (like the Raiders or the Rams) almost literally can't attract bettors no matter how big the line is.

This is because the Raiders and the Rams really suck. Time to allow for that in making my picks, and reject for now the hallowed "Ted Baxter Principle", which states that double-digit spreads are almost always a good time to take the underdog, because they're all pro teams and none of them are really that much better than the others. (This comes from the Season 5 episode of The Mary Tyler Moore Show, "The System".) Sorry, Ted, but...

DET at GB (-13.5). GB - 13.5.

STL at JAX (-9.5). JAX - 9.5. (Although the Rams might respond positively to not having the specter of the Big Fat Idiot as a part-owner.)

PHI (-14) at OAK. PHI - 14.

In other, non-cartoon-line games...

NYG at NO (-3). This might be the biggest game the Saints have had at home in a few years, so let me get my "Who Dat" chant going. NO - 3.

AZ at SEA (-3). Beacuse I can't bear to not pick at least one underdog this week... AZ + 3.

October 11:

Third winning week out of four, as the Browns, Dolphins, and Vikings were winning picks. The 3-2 week makes me 10-10 overall. Good start, but... here's the thing. Just for fun I've been picking all the games this season in the ESPN pool. I had always figured that concentrating on choosing 5 games would increase chances of hitting winners, and that picking all the games would lead to lots of misses. But as of the first 4 weeks, I am 35-27 over all the games. In other words, in the games that I didn't choose as one of my five "special" weekly picks, I am 25-17, or 59.5%.

A possible experiment for next week-- choosing my 5 games at random and seeing what happens! But for this week...

MIN (-10) at STL. The Favresters looked good last week and the Rams looked impossibly awful. Minnesota should still win, but 10 points is tempting to take. STL + 10.

OAK at NYG (-14.5). Likewise, this looks like a sucker's bet, as the Raiders have been, how you say, not good. In today's Deadspin, one bettor vented over picking the Raiders last week, to wit:

"I will not ever again bet on the Raiders, under any circumstance, ever (at least this year.). They will not cover. They will not score touchdowns, let alone only lose by one of them on the road. Jamarcus Russell will continue to have a quarterback rating strikingly similar to the one that he would have if he sailed every ball 12 yards over somebody's head. Which he does enough of as it is. To summarize: Don't bet on the Raiders. They should be contracted."

So, of course, 14 and a half points is too tempting for me. Serpentine! Zig when they zag! OAK + 14.5.

PIT (-10.5) at DET. I'll say this: if these picks go down in flames this week, I'll be temporarily cured of taking double-digit spreads on bad teams. DET + 10.5.

NE (-3) at DEN. Finally, a game where the team I pick might have a chance of winning outright... DEN + 3.

NYJ (-1.5) at MIA. MIA + 1.5, even though Mark Sanchez is so poised.

October 4:

For the record, the team that lost to the Buccaneers in 1977 and broke their 26-game losing streak-- therefore, the first team to lose to Tampa Bay, ever-- was the Saints. And now, we will remember Washington as the first team to lose to Detroit in 20 games. So after saying for weeks "it has to happen eventually," it finally did. Other than the Lions finally winning, it was a good start for the "That's Life" betting model ("riding high in April, shot down in May"), with 2 of 3 games being winners. A 3-2 week, 7-8 overall.

CIN (-6) at CLE. Besides the "That's Life" effect, it's a rivalry game, and it's, you know, the Mighty Bengals of Cincinnati. (Obligatory yearly Sports Night reference!) CLE + 6.

NYG (-8.5) at KC. KC + 8.5.

SEA at IND (-10). Betting against both of the Mannings this week. BTW, that Saints team that embarrasingly lost to the Buccaneers back in 1977? Archie's. SEA + 10.

BUF (-1.5) at MIA. MIA + 1.5.

GB at MIN (3.5). This doesn't fall under any particular picking system, just have a hunch. You might have heard that it's kind of a big deal to some fans :) I'd love to see Favre humiliated somehow, but I don't think it will happen-- yet. MIN - 3.5.

September 27:

Shockingly, still no essay on my gambling weekend. But soon... Last week was a step backward, with only San Francisco being a winning pick. A 1-4 week, 4-6 overall.

For this week, I am trying an experiment on a few games. Some unlikely teams won last week after sucking in Week 1, and some teams which played well in the first week fell flat last week, for no apparent reason. I wonder if "parity" could almost generate a situation where picking the teams which lost last week to win this week, and the winners last week to lose this week, might be a viable option. I can almost swear that Nate Silver wrote something last year about raw polling data being this way, that if Obama was up in one day's poll the probablility was that he would be down the next day, then back up again, and so on...

So at least some of this week's picks were based on this idea-- teams which lost last week playing teams which won last week, and who are underdogs... For example,

JAX at HOU (-3.5). The Jags lost last week, the Texans won. Will the Jags win, just based on up-and-down patterns? Let's see. JAX + 3.5.

WAS (-6.5) at DET. Sooner or later, the Lions are going to have to win. The losing streak is now 19, 25 out of the last 26. Fun fact-- before this 1-25 stretch began, the Lions started out the 2007 season 6-2. It's true! DET + 6.5.

CHI (-2) at SEA. Jay Cutler is the very definition of an up-and-down QB. SEA + 2.

NO (-6) at BUF. This game isn't tied to the up-and-down syndrome, just to the feeling that after being touted all week as the Bestest Offense In The League, the Saints will fall flat this week on the road. We shall see. BUF + 6.

IND at AZ (-3). I know they went to the Super Bowl last season and all, but it still looks funny to see them favored against the Colts. Therefore, IND + 3.

September 20:

Must be brief again this week, though for a different reason than last week, when I was traveling and short for time. This week, I am still short for time, but only because I'm lazy. Heh! But I still intend to write about last week's games and results under the tantalizing title "My Gambling Weekend"... But for now, the result of last week was a 3-2 start.

This week's games...

NO at PHI (Pick 'em)-- Eagles

MIN (-9.5) at DET-- Lions + 9.5.

OAK at KC (-3)-- Chiefs -3

SEA at SF (-1.5)-- 49ers -1.5

NYG at DAL (-3)-- Cowboys -3

September 13:

Wrapups of last season and meditations on this season will have to wait... right now, this week's picks and this week's picks only...

DEN at CIN (-3.5)-- Broncos + 3.5

PHI at CAR (-.5)-- Eagles + .5

DET at NO (-11.5)-- Lions + 11.5

BUF at NE (-10.5)-- Bills + 10.5

SD (-6.5) at OAK-- Chargers - 6.5